La prevista reducción de la tasa de la Fed y sus implicaciones para el dólar y los mercados globales

The Federal Reserve's dovish pivot in late 2025 has ignited a recalibration of global capital flows, with dollar-sensitive assets emerging as key beneficiaries. Following the October 2025 rate cut-marking the first reduction in a tightening cycle that began in 2023-the Fed's December meeting is now priced for a 25-basis-point cut with an 80% probability. This shift, driven by softening labor market data, elevated unemployment expectations, and a gradual decline in inflation, has created a fertile environment for assets that thrive under accommodative monetary policy according to official statements.

The Case for Commodities and Gold

Gold has emerged as a standout performer in this environment, surging over 30% year-to-date in 2025 to record highs above $3,500 per ounce. Central bank demand, particularly from emerging markets, has been a critical driver, with global gold reserves increasing by over 1,000 tonnes annually since 2022. J.P. Morgan Research projects gold prices to average $3,675/oz by year-end 2025 and rise toward $4,000/oz by mid-2026. This structural bull case is further reinforced by geopolitical tensions and the ongoing de-dollarization trend, as nations diversify reserves away from the U.S. dollar according to market analysis.

Long-duration bonds have also gained traction, with investors extending duration into 5–10-year treasuries ahead of expected rate cuts. The decline in real rates has made inflation-hedging assets increasingly attractive, particularly as the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment faces renewed scrutiny.

Emerging Market Currencies and Equities: A Reawakening

The U.S. dollar's weakening trajectory has been a tailwind for emerging market (EM) currencies. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen nearly 8% year-to-date in 2025, with the euro and Australian dollar outperforming as investors reallocate capital to higher-yielding EM assets according to market data. Fund flows into EM currency ETFs, such as the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG), have surged with $7.93 billion in inflows recorded in late November 2025 alone. This trend aligns with J.P. Morgan's forecast that EM central banks will continue cutting rates despite the Fed's cautious stance, further supporting EM currency outperformance.

Emerging market equities have mirrored this momentum. The MSCI Emerging Market index gained 16% year-to-date through November 2025, driven by AI-driven growth, easing trade tensions, and improved corporate earnings. Sector allocations favor value, small-cap, and mid-cap stocks, which are more prevalent in EM markets and benefit from lower borrowing costs. For instance, India's rupee and Indonesia's rupiah have strengthened as capital inflows accelerate, reflecting improved risk appetite.

Strategic Positioning in a Dovish Regime

Investors are adopting dynamic strategies to capitalize on these shifts. Tactical allocations to long-duration ETFs and laddled treasuries with 5–10-year maturities are gaining traction. Defensive positioning includes maintaining short-duration Treasuries and cash equivalents to preserve flexibility, while options strategies (e.g., puts or collars) are being used to hedge concentrated equity positions according to portfolio analysis.

For income-focused investors, laddering certificates and treasuries is recommended to avoid locking in at lower rates immediately. Dividend-paying blue-chip equities with stable cash flows are also being prioritized as partial substitutes for declining fixed-income yields according to investment strategy.

Risks and Dissenting Views

Despite the bullish case for dollar-sensitive assets, risks persist. The Fed's December decision faces uncertainty due to delayed data from a government shutdown, forcing policymakers to rely on private-sector indicators. Dissenting voices within the FOMC, such as Susan Collins, caution against premature easing, highlighting the risk of reigniting inflationary pressures. Additionally, savers and retirees face challenges as yields contract, squeezing income streams.

Conclusion

The Fed's dovish pivot in 2025 has created a structural shift in global markets, with dollar-sensitive assets poised to outperform. Gold, EM currencies, and equities are particularly well-positioned to benefit from accommodative monetary policy and improved risk appetite. However, investors must remain vigilant to macroeconomic uncertainties and policy divergences. A dynamic, active approach-prioritizing liquidity, hedging, and sector-specific opportunities-will be critical to navigating this evolving landscape.