Impacto del límite del 10% en las tasas de interés de las tarjetas de crédito impuesto por Trump en las acciones del sector financiero

The proposed 10% credit card interest rate cap, a cornerstone of President-elect Donald Trump's 2024 campaign and a bipartisan legislative effort led by Senators Bernie Sanders and Josh Hawley, has ignited a fierce debate over its implications for the financial sector. As the 119th Congress debates S.381-the 10 Percent Credit Card Interest Rate Cap Act-investors must grapple with the potential fallout for credit card issuers, banks, and broader financial institutions. This analysis evaluates the strategic risks and sector rotation opportunities arising from this regulatory shift, drawing on recent market data, historical precedents, and expert projections.

Regulatory Landscape and Market Implications

The proposed cap, which would sunset on January 1, 2031, aims to reduce the average credit card APR from 24% to 10%, a move projected to save consumers $100 billion annually. However, critics argue that such a drastic reduction could destabilize the credit card industry's business model, which relies heavily on high-interest revenue. For instance, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau notes that credit card interest income accounts for nearly six times the return on assets (ROA) of all banking activities. A 10% cap would force issuers to either absorb losses, raise fees, or tighten credit underwriting- potentially limiting access to credit for high-risk borrowers.

The regulatory uncertainty is compounded by conflicting timelines. While the Senate bill (S.381) envisions a five-year cap starting in 2025, Trump's campaign proposal initially framed it as a one-year measure effective January 20, 2026. This ambiguity has created a volatile environment for financial stocks, particularly those with significant exposure to credit card operations.

Key Players and Revenue Exposure

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC):
Both institutions derive a portion of their revenue from credit card operations, though their diversified business models (wealth management, trading, and corporate banking) provide some insulation. In 2025, JPMorgan reported a forward P/E of 15.67X, reflecting investor confidence in its investment banking and AI-driven operations. Bank of America, with a forward P/E of 12.92X, projects 5–7% year-over-year net interest income growth for 2026. However, analysts caution that a 10% rate cap could erode their credit card margins, particularly if they are forced to reduce rewards programs or limit credit availability.

Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA):
Unlike banks, these payment networks earn revenue through interchange fees rather than direct interest income. However, a rate cap could indirectly impact their business by reducing transaction volumes if consumers shift to alternative payment methods like buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) services. In Q3 2025, Mastercard reported 17% year-over-year revenue growth, driven by value-added services, while Visa's net revenue rose 12%. Analysts project that both companies could mitigate risks by expanding into tokenized credentials and digital wallets.

Capital One (COF) and Discover Financial (DFS):
These pure-play credit card issuers face the most direct exposure. Discover's 2024 credit card interest revenue totaled $16.109 billion, representing over 80% of its total interest income. A 10% cap could reduce its profitability unless it offsets losses by increasing fees or targeting higher-credit-score customers. Similarly, Capital One's domestic credit card net charge-off rate stood at 4.77% in October 2025, suggesting that tighter underwriting could exacerbate asset-quality risks.

Sector Rotation and Strategic Risk Assessment

The regulatory uncertainty has already triggered a market rotation toward sectors perceived as more resilient. In early 2026, financials, industrials, and defense-related stocks outperformed, while technology and long-duration growth stocks lagged. This shift reflects investor caution amid fears of prolonged rate cuts and Trump's deregulatory agenda, which includes expansive tariffs and reduced oversight of capital markets.

Small-cap stocks, which are more sensitive to rate cuts, have emerged as a compelling alternative. For instance, regional banks and fintechs with lower leverage to credit card operations could benefit from a reallocation of capital. Additionally, the easing of capital standards under Trump's deregulatory framework has boosted M&A activity in the financial sector, with Capital One's pending acquisition of Discover poised to reshape the competitive landscape.

Investment Recommendations for 2026

1. Hedge Against Regulatory Risk: Investors should consider reducing exposure to pure-play credit card issuers (e.g., DFS, COF) and overweighting diversified banks (e.g., JPM, BAC) with robust non-interest income streams.
2. Monitor Sector Rotation: Allocate capital to small-cap financials and industrials, which are better positioned to benefit from rate cuts and regulatory easing.
3. Track Legislative Progress: The fate of S.381 and Trump's executive actions will determine the cap's timeline. A delayed implementation would provide issuers time to adjust, while an abrupt rollout could trigger a market selloff.
4. Evaluate Fee Structures: Watch for credit card companies to offset lost interest revenue by increasing annual fees or reducing rewards- a trend already observed in 2025.

Conclusion

Trump's 10% credit card rate cap represents a seismic shift in the financial sector's risk profile. While the policy aims to alleviate consumer debt burdens, its implementation could disrupt the profitability of credit card issuers and payment networks. Investors must balance the potential for consumer savings with the strategic risks to financial stocks, leveraging sector rotation and active management to navigate this uncertain landscape. As the 119th Congress and Trump administration finalize their approach, agility and informed decision-making will be paramount.