Immutable/Bitcoin Market Overview

• IMXBTC broke above key resistance on strong volume and momentum.
• Price closed +10.7% higher at 12:00 ET, near 8.03e-06.
• MACD and RSI show overbought conditions, suggesting a potential pullback.
• Volatility increased with Bollinger Band expansion and high turnover.

Immutable/Bitcoin (IMXBTC) opened at 7.09e-06 on 2025-09-18 12:00 ET, and closed at 7.27e-06 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19, reaching a high of 8.25e-06 and a low of 7.13e-06. Total volume across 24 hours was 1,653,604.93, with a notional turnover of approximately $12,133 (assuming an average BTC price). The pair experienced a sharp rally in the early hours of 2025-09-19, driven by volume spikes and a bullish breakout.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels were identified at 7.20e-06 and 7.10e-06, both of which held through the session. Price tested and rejected at 7.34e-06 multiple times, suggesting it became a key resistance-turned-support. A strong bullish engulfing pattern was visible during the 01:30–02:00 ET period, followed by a continuation into the midday highs. A doji formed around 7.45e-06, signaling indecision at the top of the move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were crossed during the early morning rally, with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA by the time of the close. This bullish cross suggested strengthening momentum. The 50-period daily MA was near 7.42e-06, with price above it, indicating a continuation of the short-to-medium-term uptrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line in the 15-minute timeframe, and both components were rising sharply during the 01:00–02:30 ET period, indicating strong buying pressure. The RSI reached overbought levels above 70, particularly in the 01:30–02:15 ET window, suggesting a potential near-term correction could follow the rally.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 01:15–02:30 ET rally, with the upper band reaching 8.30e-06 and the lower band near 7.10e-06. The price closed just below the upper band at 8.03e-06, suggesting that it was in a high-risk overbought territory. The widening of the bands also pointed to a likely consolidation phase ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 01:15–01:30 ET window, with the highest single candle volume at 143,128.06, and continued to confirm the rally through the morning hours. Turnover was notably higher during the breakout period compared to the previous 48 hours. No significant divergence between price and volume was observed, suggesting the rally was broadly supported.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute rally from 7.13e-06 to 8.25e-06, the 38.2% retracement level is at 7.73e-06, while the 61.8% level is at 7.44e-06. Price approached the 7.44e-06 level in the late morning but failed to break through it, suggesting it may act as a potential short-term support level. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level of the broader move from 7.09e-06 to 8.25e-06 is at 7.32e-06, which was tested in the afternoon.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed structure and momentum, a potential backtesting strategy could focus on entries at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level with a stop below the 61.8% level. A long entry at 7.73e-06 with a take-profit at 7.90e-06 and a stop-loss at 7.50e-06 would align with the observed volatility and pattern strength. The strategy would also use RSI overbought levels as dynamic exits, closing positions when RSI falls below 60. This approach aligns with the strong volume confirmation seen during the rally, and the Fibonacci support levels observed during the 01:30–02:00 ET period suggest potential for continuation before consolidation.