Illuvium/Tether (ILVUSDT) Market Overview

Summary
• ILVUSDT opened at $11.14, hit a high of $13.09, and closed at $10.77 over the last 24 hours.
• Price declined 4.76% with a total volume of ~878,546 and turnover of ~$10.07 million.
• Volatility spiked sharply after 19:45 ET, with price surging past $13.00 before retracing.
• Momentum weakened in the final hours, with RSI dipping below 50 and MACD turning bearish.
• Volume diverged slightly from price during the decline, suggesting uneven conviction.

Opening Narrative and Key Metrics

Illuvium/Tether (ILVUSDT) opened at $11.14 on 2025-11-08 12:00 ET and closed at $10.77 by 2025-11-09 12:00 ET. The pair touched a high of $13.09 and a low of $10.18 during the 24-hour window. Total volume amounted to approximately 878,546 contracts, with notional turnover reaching $10.07 million. This indicates a relatively active session marked by a sharp but short-lived bull move followed by a significant reversal.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a distinct bearish reversal formation after the mid-session rally, particularly in the 2025-1108 194500 to 2025-1108 230000 window. A strong bullish candle with a high of $13.09 gave way to a series of bearish closes. Key support levels emerged near $11.20 and $10.60, both showing strong rejection. A potential bearish engulfing pattern formed as the last large bullish candle was followed by a wider bearish body, signaling exhaustion of the upward move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA in the final hours of the session, suggesting a potential bearish bias in the short term. Daily moving averages (50, 100, 200) are yet to provide a clear convergence, though the 100-day MA is slightly above the 200-day MA, indicating a neutral to mildly bullish longer-term bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative in the final 6 hours of the session, with the histogram expanding to reflect growing bearish momentum. RSI dropped below 50 and entered oversold territory near the session close. This suggests short-term profit-taking may have accelerated the decline. However, RSI did not reach deeply oversold levels, leaving room for potential mean reversion.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked significantly during the 19:45 ET candle as the price surged past $13.00, breaking the upper Bollinger Band. This was followed by a sharp reversion back into the channel. By the close, the price sat near the lower band, indicating a potential reversal to the upside. The bands are currently contracting, which may precede a breakout or breakdown in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 61,414 contracts in the 21:00 ET candle, coinciding with the sharp peak near $13.09. However, after that point, volume declined, and the price action showed less conviction, even as the price continued to fall. Notional turnover also dropped during the late decline, suggesting a lack of follow-through in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price retested the 61.8% Fibonacci level near $11.20 before breaking through to the 38.2% level at $10.60. This indicates that the initial bullish move was partially unwound. On the daily chart, a broader Fibonacci retracement of the recent swing high and low (not shown in the 15-minute data) would provide more context, but the 15-minute retracement levels appear to be a valid reference point for near-term support and resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtest strategy leverages the Bullish-Engulfing candlestick pattern to generate buy signals. This approach aligns with the observed volatility and price structure in ILVUSDT, particularly during sharp upward spikes like the one at $13.09. Given the recent bearish turn and declining momentum, a similar short-term reversal setup may offer strategic opportunities for traders using this pattern. The test holds positions for exactly 3 days and relies solely on time-based exit rules, making it a simple yet relevant framework for evaluating pattern efficacy in this highly volatile pair.