Illuvium/Tether (ILVUSDT) Market Overview: 24-Hour Technical Summary

• Illuvium/Tether (ILVUSDT) closed lower after an extended bearish move into early morning hours.
• Key support tested around $12.90–13.00, with a potential 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $13.35.
• Volatility expanded during the sell-off but has since narrowed with waning momentum.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions near 25, while MACD remains bearish with negative divergence.
• Divergence between volume and price may hint at short-term accumulation or capitulation.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22, Illuvium/Tether (ILVUSDT) opened at $14.57 and closed at $12.97 after a 24-hour period marked by sharp bearish momentum. The pair reached a high of $14.62 and a low of $12.43, closing at $12.97. Total volume across the 24-hour window was 132,257.06 ILV, with a notional turnover of $1,775,167.94. The price action was driven by a prolonged selloff that accelerated after 00:30 ET.

Structure & Formations

The past 24 hours displayed a clear bearish structure, with a strong breakdown from the key support level of $13.45 into a new 24-hour low of $12.43. Notable bearish patterns included a gravestone doji at 06:15 ET and a bearish engulfing pattern at 23:30 ET. A bullish rejection pattern briefly appeared around $13.00 late in the day, suggesting short-term stabilization. Key resistance appears at $13.15–13.35, with support holding at $12.90 and $12.75 as a critical threshold.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs have diverged significantly, with price remaining below both. The 50-period SMA now sits at approximately $13.50, while the 20-period SMA is at $13.25. For daily timeframes, the 50-period SMA is above $14.00, and the 100-period and 200-period SMAs are at $14.20 and $14.40, respectively, highlighting the bearish pressure from longer-term averages.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained bearish throughout the 24-hour period, with the line dipping below the signal line and staying negative. A bearish divergence appeared as price attempted to recover while the MACD did not confirm it. The RSI reached oversold territory near 25 at 06:15 ET, offering a potential short-term reversal cue. However, the RSI has since remained in the lower 30s, indicating lingering bearish control.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the early morning sell-off, with price reaching the lower band at 02:30 ET. As volatility has since stabilized, the bands have contracted slightly, and price is currently positioned near the lower end of the band structure, suggesting potential for a bounce or consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning selloff, particularly at 06:15 ET, with a 24-hour high turnover of $13.02 at 06:15 ET. Notably, volume was high during the breakdown but decreased during attempted rallies, hinting at divergence that may indicate either capitulation or accumulation. The lack of follow-through in volume during bullish attempts suggests weak conviction among buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from $14.62 to $12.43, key levels of interest include the 38.2% retracement at $13.45 and the 61.8% level at $13.35. These levels appear to have provided some resistance, with price stalling near the 38.2% retracement. On the daily chart, the 23.6% retracement from a previous major swing is at $13.70, which could serve as near-term resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy emphasizes using a combination of RSI, MACD, and volume to identify potential reversal points in ILVUSDT. Given the recent RSI reading in oversold territory and the bearish divergence in MACD, a buy signal could be triggered if the price closes above the 50-period SMA on the 15-minute chart with an increase in volume. This would indicate short-term accumulation. A stop-loss could be placed below the most recent support at $12.90. A sell signal may be triggered if the price breaks below $12.75 with an increase in volume, confirming further bearish momentum.