iExec RLC/Bitcoin Market Overview for 2025-09-23

• RLCBTC rose 0.44% over 24 hours, closing at 9.84e-06.
• Volatility expanded in the final hours, with a 0.23e-06 range from 9.61e-06 to 9.84e-06.
• Volume surged in the last candle, confirming a bullish breakout on 15-min charts.
• RSI and MACD both showed positive divergence, suggesting sustained upward momentum.
• Price remains below key 50-period MA but above 20-period MA on 15-min chart.

The iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC) pair opened at 9.46e-06 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET and closed at 9.84e-06 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 9.84e-06 and a low of 9.4e-06. The total volume for the 24-hour period was 16,186.9, while notional turnover amounted to 0.1546 BTC.

On the 15-minute chart, the pair showed a bullish bias in the final hours of the 24-hour period, especially with a strong close at 9.84e-06. A series of bullish engulfing patterns were observed from 08:15 to 10:30 ET, where price surged above the prior high. A key support level appears to be forming near 9.57e-06, which has been tested and held multiple times, while resistance is now at 9.84e-06. The 20-period moving average was above the 50-period line near the close, suggesting short-term momentum is leaning bullish.

The MACD showed a positive crossover with the signal line in the last 4 hours, indicating increasing upward momentum. RSI reached a neutral 56 at close, still well below overbought (70), suggesting further upside is possible. Bollinger Bands widened in the final 4 hours, confirming a breakout from consolidation. Price remained above the upper band at 9.84e-06, pointing to a potential continuation of the bullish trend. The average true range (ATR) increased from ~0.03e-06 to ~0.23e-06, highlighting rising volatility.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the swing low of 9.4e-06 to the high of 9.84e-06 placed key levels at 38.2% (9.61e-06) and 61.8% (9.71e-06). Price tested and held above 38.2% multiple times, suggesting further movement toward 61.8% is likely. Volume spiked sharply in the final hour, especially on the last 15-minute candle, confirming the move above 9.84e-06. Notional turnover aligned closely with price, showing no significant divergence.

Backtest Hypothesis:
A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the 20-period and 50-period moving averages as dynamic entries, combined with a bullish RSI divergence above 50 and a close above the upper Bollinger Band as confirmation. This would suggest entering long positions with a stop-loss just below the most recent swing low. A Fibonacci extension to 127.2% could serve as a profit target, while volume and turnover would be used to validate the strength of the move. This setup may be most effective in low-noise environments where the trend is well-established.