ICR 2026: The Retail Scorecard Wall Street Watches Before Earnings Season

The ICR Conference has earned its reputation as the retail sector’s unofficial opening bell for the year, and this year’s flood of guidance underscores exactly why investors pay such close attention. Held early in the calendar and squarely focused on consumer-facing businesses, ICR consistently delivers something markets crave: real-time insight into how the consumer actually behaved over the holidays and how management teams see demand shaping up as the year begins. In an environment where macro narratives swing daily and confidence is fragile, these updates function as a practical stress test of household spending power, pricing tolerance, and brand relevance.

What makes ICR especially important is timing. Many retailers and restaurants use the conference to pre-announce results or refine guidance weeks ahead of formal earnings reports. That means investors get an early look at holiday performance, inventory discipline, and margin trends before they’re diluted by broader earnings noise. This year, that signal has been loud and mixed—pointing to a consumer that is still spending, but doing so selectively, rewarding clear value, strong brand identity, and operational execution while punishing anything that feels undifferentiated or overextended.

On the positive side of the ledger, several companies delivered guidance that reinforces the “resilient but picky” consumer narrative. Five Below (FIVE) stood out as a clear winner, issuing upside guidance across the board. Holiday comparable sales surged roughly 14.5%, and management raised fourth-quarter revenue and earnings expectations well above consensus. That kind of performance speaks to traffic-driven growth and suggests lower-income and value-oriented consumers are still actively spending when price points and merchandising resonate. It’s an encouraging signal not just for discount retail, but for the broader idea that demand hasn’t collapsed—it has simply migrated.

American Eagle (AEO) also landed on the constructive end of the spectrum. The company raised fourth-quarter operating income guidance, citing strong margin performance and comparable sales growth in the high-single-digit range. Particularly notable was continued momentum at Aerie and Offline, which reinforces the idea that brands aligned with comfort, lifestyle, and athleisure remain well-positioned. Even with roughly $50 million in tariff-related pressure embedded in guidance, management’s tone was confident, highlighting solid execution and sustained post-holiday demand.

Urban Outfitters (URBN) added another data point supporting selective strength. The company reported record holiday sales, with net sales up 9% over the two-month holiday period. Growth was broad-based, spanning digital and physical channels, and several banners posted positive comps. Strong performance at Urban Outfitters and Free People, combined with accelerating subscription revenue, points to a consumer still willing to spend on discretionary apparel when product differentiation and brand identity are clear.

Boot Barn (BARN) was another standout, delivering upside guidance alongside healthy same-store sales growth and strong e-commerce momentum. Management commentary highlighted strength in denim, western boots, and workwear, suggesting that category-specific demand pockets remain robust. The company’s expansion pace and upbeat tone around early fourth-quarter trends reinforce the notion that niche retailers with loyal customer bases continue to find growth even as broader retail sentiment remains cautious.

Restaurants, meanwhile, painted a more nuanced picture. First Watch (FWRG) reported positive same-restaurant sales growth and modest traffic gains for the full year, supported by aggressive unit expansion. The data suggest consumers are still dining out, particularly in daytime and value-oriented concepts, but traffic trends remain fragile. Shake Shack, by contrast, issued downside revenue guidance for the fourth quarter while reiterating long-term growth targets. That combination—near-term pressure, long-term confidence—captures the current restaurant environment well: demand is there, but price sensitivity and competition are forcing operators to work harder for incremental growth.

On the weaker side, several companies highlighted where consumer pressure is starting to show. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) trimmed fourth-quarter expectations slightly below consensus, citing softer growth at the Abercrombie brand despite continued strength at Hollister. While the longer-term outlook remains intact, the guidance adjustment serves as a reminder that even strong turnaround stories aren’t immune to normalization after outsized gains.

Utz Brands (UTZ) also disappointed, guiding fourth-quarter revenue below expectations despite EBITDA growth. Management pointed to inventory dynamics and external disruptions, but the takeaway for investors is clear: pricing power in packaged snacks is no longer automatic, and volume growth is harder to come by. Zumiez (ZUMZ) delivered a mixed update—cutting sales guidance but raising earnings expectations on margin strength—highlighting the increasingly common theme of cost control offsetting top-line pressure.

Petco’s (WOOF) reaffirmation of declining revenue guidance reinforced challenges in discretionary pet spending, while J. Jill’s outlook suggested stabilization but not a return to growth. These updates collectively point to a consumer who is prioritizing experiences, essentials, and compelling value propositions while pulling back on categories that lack urgency or differentiation.

Stepping back, the real importance of ICR this year lies less in any single company and more in the pattern that’s emerging. The consumer is not broken—but they are far more discerning. Brands that deliver value, relevance, and operational excellence are being rewarded with traffic and pricing power. Those relying on inertia or broad-based demand are finding the environment less forgiving.

For markets grappling with macro uncertainty, rate volatility, and political noise, these company-level signals matter. Retail sits at the intersection of employment, inflation, and sentiment, making ICR commentary a critical cross-check on economic narratives. As earnings season approaches, the guidance coming out of Orlando will likely frame expectations well beyond retail, influencing how investors think about growth, margins, and the durability of consumer demand in the months ahead.