¿El ICP está listo para una recuperación sostenida ante señales técnicas mixtas y volatilidad?

The Internet Computer (ICP) has long been a focal point for investors seeking exposure to blockchain infrastructure innovation. However, as the token navigates a complex technical landscape and volatile market conditions in late 2025, the question of whether it is poised for a sustained rebound remains contentious. Recent price action, on-chain metrics, and positioning data reveal a market caught between bearish inertia and the potential for a short-driven reversal. This analysis examines the interplay of Fibonacci retracement levels, failed rallies, and short positioning to assess ICP's near-term trajectory and evaluate whether the recent pullback offers a strategic entry point for long-term investors.

Technical Structure: A Bearish Framework with Ambiguous Reversal Potential

ICP's price action in late 2025 has been defined by its inability to sustain momentum above critical resistance levels. The token's failed rally attempt above the $3.25–$3.30 zone, followed by a retreat to $3.13, underscores the dominance of overhead supply and bearish sentiment. From a Fibonacci perspective, the 0.236 retracement level at $5.31 remains a pivotal threshold. A breakout above this level could signal a shift toward the 0.382 level at $7.32, but ICP has yet to demonstrate the conviction required to retest these areas.

The market structure further complicates the outlook. Technical analysts have noted that ICP's recent advance aligns more closely with an expanded flat pattern than a running flat, as proportional Fibonacci measurements fail to support the latter. This structural ambiguity suggests that the token's directional bias remains uncertain, with elevated volatility likely to persist. Meanwhile, the 0 Fib level at $2.06 acts as a critical support zone. A breakdown below this level could trigger a deeper correction, but it also presents a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors if the price stabilizes.

On-Chain Metrics: Institutional Momentum vs. Ecosystem Weakness

Despite the bearish technical backdrop, on-chain data reveals a surge in institutional interest. ICP's 30% price jump in late October 2025, driven by partnerships with Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud, catalyzed a 35% increase in daily active addresses and DEX volumes that spiked to $843.5 million. By November, the token's market cap had reached $2.26 billion, securing its position as the 47th largest cryptocurrency. These figures highlight growing institutional adoption but contrast sharply with the 22.4% decline in decentralized app (dApp) engagement, which raises questions about the sustainability of user-driven growth.

The divergence between institutional activity and ecosystem engagement underscores a key risk: while ICP attracts capital from large players, its broader utility and adoption remain unproven. This imbalance could exacerbate volatility, as short-term speculative flows dominate over fundamental demand.

Short Positioning and Liquidation Dynamics

Short-term positioning metrics add another layer of complexity. The MVRV Long/Short Difference has plummeted to 39.06%, indicating significant unrealized losses among short-term holders. This suggests that a sustained rebound could trigger forced liquidations, particularly if ICP reclaims the $5.50 demand zone-a former resistance level that now acts as a potential catalyst for a rally toward $9.80. However, such a scenario hinges on the token's ability to overcome the $3.25–$3.30 resistance zone, where overhead supply remains concentrated.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near oversold levels and negative Bull Bear Power (BBP) further reinforce the bearish bias. While these indicators suggest a potential short-term rebound, they also highlight the fragility of any upward move. A breakout above $5.50 would need to be accompanied by a surge in volume and open interest to signal a credible reversal.

Strategic Entry Point: Weighing Risks and Opportunities

For long-term investors, the recent pullback to $3.13 presents a nuanced opportunity. If ICP can stabilize above the $2.06 support level and absorb the overhead supply above $3.25, it could set the stage for a multi-phase rally. However, the path to a sustained rebound remains fraught with challenges. The token must first navigate the $3.25–$3.30 zone without triggering further selling pressure, a task complicated by the expanded flat pattern's structural uncertainty.

A strategic entry point would require confirmation of a bullish reversal, such as a breakout above $5.50 with elevated volume or a retest of the $4.30 Fibonacci level. Until then, the market remains in a state of flux, with short-term holders likely to dictate near-term volatility.

Conclusion

ICP's near-term outlook is shaped by a delicate balance between bearish technical signals and the potential for short-driven reversals. While institutional adoption and elevated on-chain activity provide a foundation for optimism, the token's structural weaknesses-namely, its inability to sustain momentum above key resistance levels-pose significant risks. For long-term investors, the current pullback offers a cautious entry point, but success will depend on ICP's ability to overcome overhead supply and demonstrate conviction in a bullish direction. As the market awaits a breakout, the interplay of Fibonacci levels, short positioning, and institutional dynamics will remain critical to watch.