IAEA assumes Iran hasn't moved high enriched uranium stockpile

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has stated it cannot verify whether Iran has moved or retained its stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU) following sustained restrictions on access to key nuclear facilities. A confidential IAEA report circulated in February 2026 noted that Iran has not allowed inspectors into sites bombed during the 2025 U.S.-Israel conflict, including Isfahan, Natanz, and Fordow, leaving the agency unable to confirm the "size, composition, or whereabouts" of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile according to IAEA reports. According to the IAEA, Iran maintains 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity—a level technically close to weapons-grade (90%)—which could theoretically support the production of up to 10 nuclear weapons if further enriched as the agency reports.

Despite Iran's assertion that its nuclear program is peaceful, the IAEA has not been able to restore continuous monitoring since the war, relying instead on satellite imagery and limited facility access. Observations of "regular vehicular activity" near Isfahan's tunnel complex, where enriched uranium was last documented, have raised concerns about potential movement of material, though the IAEA cannot confirm this without on-site verification according to IAEA statements. Iran has also rejected calls to resume full cooperation with the agency, citing "acts of aggression" as justification for suspending safeguards as reported by the IAEA.

Diplomatic efforts to resolve the standoff remain stalled. Recent U.S.-Iran talks in Geneva, mediated by Oman, ended without agreement, with both sides citing unresolved verification and security issues according to diplomatic sources. The IAEA's director general, Rafael Grossi, emphasized that monthly verification of HEU stockpiles is critical under international guidelines, but Iran's restrictions have disrupted this process as the agency stated. Analysts warn that prolonged uncertainty could heighten geopolitical tensions and complicate efforts to revive a nuclear deal, with financial markets closely monitoring developments amid broader regional instability.