Hyperliquid (HYPE) Faces Critical Support at $29 – Is a Breakdown to $19 Imminent?

Hyperliquid (HYPE), the native token of the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, has entered a pivotal phase as it tests the $29–$30 support zone-a level that has historically acted as both a structural and psychological floor for the asset. With the price currently at $36.08 according to Coinlore data, the market is bracing for a potential breakdown that could see HYPE plummet to as low as $19, driven by a confluence of bearish technical indicators, on-chain weaknesses, and structural vulnerabilities.

Technical Indicators Signal Deteriorating Momentum

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for HYPE stands at 28.93 according to CoinMarketCap analysis, nearing oversold territory but failing to generate a convincing reversal. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains below its signal line, reinforcing bearish momentum. Volume data further underscores the lack of buyer participation, with monthly trading volumes stagnating near $8 billion-a stark contrast to the robust inflows seen during earlier bullish phases according to CoinMarketCap updates.

Key support levels are now under siege. The $29.03 resistance-turned-support level has already been breached, and the next critical threshold lies at $27.54 according to CoinCodex prediction. A failure to reclaim these levels could trigger a cascade toward $24.57 and eventually the psychologically significant $20 support according to CoinMarketCap updates. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which briefly halted the downtrend, was rejected on weak volume, leaving $27 exposed as a critical short-term floor according to Whale Alert.

Structural Weaknesses Amplify Bearish Bias

Beyond traditional indicators, structural factors paint a grim picture. The price of HYPE has fallen below all major exponential moving averages (EMAs), including the 20, 50, and 100-period lines, while Bollinger Bands have expanded downward, signaling volatility skewed toward sellers according to AltcoinBuzz analysis. The stacked EMA structure below $29.5 continues to cap every rebound, and the MACD and RSI remain entrenched in bearish territory according to AltcoinBuzz analysis.

Whale activity, while showing slight moderation, has not provided a lifeline. Two major wallets recently committed over $4.2 million to new HYPE purchases according to AmbCrypto reports, yet this accumulation has been offset by broader market jitters. Derivatives data reveals cumulative short positions at $2.43 billion versus longs at $2.14 billion according to Yahoo Finance, highlighting a growing imbalance in speculative positioning.

On-Chain Metrics and Sentiment Confirm Downtrend

On-chain metrics reinforce the bearish narrative. The Fear and Greed Index for HYPE sits at 35, reflecting persistent fear across multiple timeframes. Open interest on Binance has plummeted to $150.16 million-the lowest since October- according to FXStreet, indicating waning speculative interest. Additionally, a $115 million liquidation event in recent weeks has exacerbated selling pressure, compounding the asset's structural vulnerabilities.

The broader market environment also weighs on HYPE. Token unlock events and governance uncertainty around a proposed $1 billion token burn have introduced further volatility according to CryptoSlate. While the burn aims to reduce supply, short-term price action remains anchored to bearish momentum, with validators still deliberating the reclassification of the Assistance Fund according to CryptoSlate.

Is a Breakdown to $19 Imminent?

The confluence of technical, structural, and on-chain signals suggests a high probability of a breakdown below $29. If HYPE fails to reclaim this level, the next target is likely the $24 area, with further declines potentially reaching the October low of $20.20 according to FXStreet. Analysts have even projected a deeper breakdown toward $16 or $19, citing rounding-top formations and Fibonacci retracement levels as key catalysts.

However, a modest rebound to $38–$40 remains contingent on a weekly support hold according to Bravenewcoin analysis. For now, the data overwhelmingly favors a continuation of the downtrend, particularly if institutional-scale long positions fail to materialize with conviction.

Conclusion

Hyperliquid (HYPE) is at a critical inflection point. The $29 support level, once a psychological floor, has become a battleground for bulls and bears. With technical indicators, on-chain metrics, and structural weaknesses all aligning against the asset, the risk of a breakdown to $19 is not merely speculative-it is a high-probability outcome in the short term. Investors should closely monitor volume dynamics and whale activity for signs of a reversal, but for now, the path of least resistance remains decisively downward.