HYPE Token's Unlock and Market Pressure: Is This a Buying Opportunity or a Sell-Off Signal?

The HYPE token, native to the Hyperliquid protocol, is at a critical junction. With a major unlock event scheduled for November 29, 2025-just three days from today-investors are grappling with a pivotal question: Is this a catalyst for a buying opportunity or a harbinger of a sell-off? To answer this, we must dissect the interplay of technical analysis, on-chain sentiment, and the structural mechanics of Hyperliquid's tokenomics.

Technical Analysis: A Bearish Trend with Oversold Rebound Potential

The HYPE token's technical indicators paint a mixed picture. Short-term momentum is bearish, with the 8-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $33.88 declining by 1.05% and the 21-day SMA dropping 2.98%. These metrics suggest continued downward pressure, exacerbated by the looming unlock of 9.92 million HYPE tokens valued at $327.35 million.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hints at a potential short-term rebound. The 1-hour RSI is at 20-a classic oversold level-while the 7-day RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum according to technical analysis. This divergence suggests that while the broader trend is bearish, a technical bounce could occur if buyers step in at key support levels.

Support and resistance analysis reveals critical thresholds. HYPE has tested the $45–$46 range multiple times, with a narrowing Bollinger Band and a golden cross forming near $45.50 according to market analysts. A breakout above $49 could signal a shift in sentiment, but failure to hold above $45 may deepen the bearish narrative.

On-Chain Sentiment: Whale Accumulation vs. Team Unstaking

On-chain data reveals a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces. Whale activity has been robust in recent months. Two major investors injected $21 million into HYPE tokens within 48 hours, acquiring 534,894 tokens at an average price of $39.50. Additionally, a prominent whale maintains a 5x leveraged long position of 1.38 million HYPE tokens ($38 million), despite a $15.3 million floating loss. These actions signal conviction in HYPE's long-term potential.

Yet, bearish signals persist. The Hyperliquid team recently unstaked 2.6 million HYPE tokens ($89.2 million), redistributing them across multiple wallets. While the team retained $37.4 million in staking rewards and $30.9 million in reserves, this move has raised concerns about liquidity dilution. Meanwhile, 27.08% of the total supply is already unlocked, and future unlocks could release up to $10.8 billion in tokens by 2027.

The Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio, a metric used to assess token value relative to transaction volume, remains elevated. This suggests that HYPE's market capitalization is not yet fully justified by its on-chain utility, creating a potential gap between fundamentals and price according to market analysts.

Market Impact of the November 29 Unlock

The upcoming unlock of 9.92 million HYPE tokens (0.992% of total supply) is a double-edged sword. On one hand, 23.4% of these tokens were sold OTC in a prior unlock, while 40% were re-staked. This suggests that core contributors may not immediately flood the market with sales. On the other hand, the sheer value of the unlock-$327 million-could overwhelm liquidity, especially if selling pressure intensifies.

Historical data from November 2025 provides a cautionary tale. A similar unlock led to a 17% price drop below $30, as team members sold 609,000 HYPE tokens via OTC and on-chain trades according to market reports. The current price of $27.79 is near a seven-month low, and further declines could trigger panic selling among retail investors.

Is This a Buying Opportunity or a Sell-Off Signal?

The answer hinges on three factors:
1. Whale Accumulation: The $21 million influx and leveraged long positions indicate strong institutional confidence.
2. Staking Dynamics: Hyperliquid's staking of 660,000 HYPE tokens ($30 million) reduces circulating supply, creating upward pressure according to technical analysis.
3. Unlock Execution: If 23.4% of the November 29 tokens are sold OTC (as in prior events), the market may absorb the pressure without a crash.

However, the risk of a sell-off remains high. The $10.8 billion unlock pipeline by 2027 and the team's recent unstaking according to market reports could erode trust. For HYPE to recover, it must demonstrate that its protocol revenue ($5 million daily in mid-2025 according to market data) and on-chain utility can offset dilution risks.

Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Scenario

HYPE Token's November 29 unlock is a test of market resilience. While technical indicators and whale activity suggest a potential rebound from oversold levels, the structural risks of future unlocks and team selling cannot be ignored. For risk-tolerant investors, a strategic entry near the $45–$46 support zone-coupled with a trailing stop-loss-could offer asymmetric upside if the protocol navigates the unlock successfully. For others, this is a clear sell-off signal until Hyperliquid proves it can manage its tokenomics without undermining value.