Hubspot Slips 1.07% Amid Bearish Technical Signals And $490 Support Test

Hubspot (HUBS) closed at $491.48 on September 12, 2025, marking a 1.07% decline for the session amidst mixed technical signals across indicators. The trading range remained within recent boundaries, with a low of $489.68 and high of $497.76 on below-average volume.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlesticks show indecision near the $490-$500 support zone. The September 10 shooting star (high: $508.63, close: $489.18) signaled rejection at resistance, followed by a September 12 bearish continuation candle. Significant support resides at the August 5 low ($470.51), while resistance appears at the September 9 high ($505). The July peak near $670 serves as major resistance.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (currently ~$532) remains below the 100-day MA (~$565) and 200-day MA (~$585), confirming the primary downtrend. Recent price action below all three averages reinforces bearish momentum. A decisive break above the 50-day MA would signal short-term improvement, though the descending long-term averages maintain overhead pressure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD exhibits a bearish crossover in negative territory since late August, though the histogram shows slowing downside momentum. KDJ maintains oversold readings below 20 since early September (K: 18, D: 15, J: 24 as of Sept 12), suggesting potential exhaustion in selling pressure. The divergence between sustained MACD negativity and oversold KDJ warrants caution against aggressive bearish bets.
Bollinger Bands
Bands widened dramatically during the July-$670 to August-$420 collapse, reflecting elevated volatility. Recent contraction to a 14% bandwidth (Sept 12) signals tightening volatility and potential directional breakout. Price hovering near the lower band suggests tentative support, but sustained trading below $489 would signal breakdown continuation.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution days dominated during the July breakdown (volumes 40-80% above average). Recent rallies show weak volume conviction (e.g., Sept 8: +2.26% on 15% below-average volume), while September 10's selloff occurred on above-average volume, confirming bearish sentiment. Supportive volume on reversals remains absent, eroding rebound credibility.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Daily RSI oscillates near oversold territory (35-42 range since Sept 5), diverging from the August oversold reading of 28. This minor positive divergence suggests weakening downside momentum. However, failure to breach 50 for two months reflects entrenched bearish control. Weekly RSI at 35 confirms the broader downtrend but shows improving basing potential.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applied to the April-$440 to July-$670 upswing:
- 61.8% retracement ($505) aligns with the September 10 rejection
- 78.6% level ($480) provided interim support in late August
- Full 100% retracement at $440 coincides with August lows
The breach below 78.6% signals structural weakness, though the $440 zone offers major support confluence with the 2025 low.
Confluence & Divergence
Significant confluence exists at $440-$470 (multi-touch August lows, 100% Fibonacci, and volume shelf). Resistance shows agreement near $505 (61.8% Fib and recent swing high). Divergences emerge between oversold KDJ/RSI readings and persistent MACD negativity, hinting at potential stabilization though unconfirmed by price action. Probable outcomes include a relief rally to $505-$515 resistance or breakdown toward $440-$450 support, with volume needing to confirm either scenario.