Hub Group's Valuation: A Closer Look After Accounting Restatement and Expense Understatement.

Hub Group (HUBG) has faced a US$77 million understatement in purchased transportation expenses, prompting restatements for the first three quarters of 2025. The accounting issue has hit sentiment hard, with an 18.25% 1-day share price return decline. However, the 5-year total shareholder return of 53.29% and 1-year total shareholder return of 2.61% indicate a longer record of value creation. The stock is now at US$41.96, a roughly 9% discount to the average analyst price target and a modelled intrinsic value gap closer to 38%.