HP Stock Jumps 4.25% to $25.50 on Technical Breakout With Bullish Signals

HP's stock surged 4.25% to $25.50 in the latest session, breaking above a multi-week consolidation range on elevated volume. This movement warrants a multi-dimensional technical assessment across key methodologies.
Candlestick Theory
The most recent session formed a robust bullish candle with a long lower wick (low: $24.30, close: $25.50), signaling strong rejection of lower prices. This follows a hammer pattern on 2025-06-24 (low: $24.15, close: $24.54), which initially stabilized prices near the $24.00 support. Resistance is now established at $25.82 (the current swing high), while $24.30 serves as immediate support. A confirmed close above $25.82 could trigger further upside momentum.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (currently near $24.80) recently crossed above the 100-day MA (approximately $25.10), generating a bullish medium-term signal. However, the price remains below the declining 200-day MA (~$29.50), confirming the primary trend is still bearish longer-term. The convergence of the 50/100-day MAs near $25.00 creates a dynamic support zone that reinforced the latest rebound.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows a bullish crossover emerging above its signal line near the zero line, suggesting building upward momentum. Meanwhile, KDJ (9,3,3) presents an overbought condition with the K-line at 85 and D-line at 78. While this implies near-term exhaustion risk, the MACD/KDJ confluence of positive momentum but stretched conditions aligns with the breakout context, warranting caution against impulsive new longs.
Bollinger Bands
The bands contracted significantly during June’s $24.00-$25.00 consolidation (bandwidth under $1.00 vs. $2.50 in May), indicating extreme volatility compression. The decisive close above the upper band ($25.30) signals a volatility expansion phase favoring upside continuation. Sustained trading above $25.00 would validate the breakout’s strength.
Volume-Price Relationship
Breakout volume of 11.3 million shares exceeded the 10-day average by 20%, confirming bullish conviction. This follows accumulation patterns: volume spikes accompanied the April bottom ($21.21) and May recovery ($24.95), while distribution occurred near the $29.00 resistance in March. Current volume expansion supports trend sustainability.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (62) retreated from overbought territory (71) in late June but now rebounds toward neutral. While not yet overbought, its recovery trajectory alongside price strength suggests room for further upside. Traders should monitor for divergence if new highs occur without RSI confirmation.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the $39.80 (Nov-2024) to $21.21 (Apr-2025) decline shows critical resistance at the 23.6% level ($25.60), precisely capping the latest session high. A confirmed breach above this threshold would open progression toward the 38.2% retracement ($28.30). Conversely, failure here could retest the 200-day MA support ($24.80).
Confluence & Probabilistic Outlook
Convergence of the Fibonacci resistance ($25.60), volume-backed breakout, and Bollinger Band expansion generates a high-probability bullish signal near-term. Divergence manifests in KDJ’s overbought reading conflicting with MACD’s nascent momentum. The $25.60-$25.82 zone becomes critical – a decisive close above would extend recovery toward $28.30, while rejection could retest $24.30 support. Risk-reward favors long positions above $25.00 with tight stops, acknowledging overbought oscillators and primary bearish structure.