Is Host Hotels & Resorts (HST) a Buy Now Amid Divergent Analyst Views and Strong Operational Resilience?

The hotel REIT sector has long been a barometer for economic cycles, and Host Hotels & Resorts (HST) is no stranger to volatility. Yet, as of Q3 2025, the company finds itself at an inflection point: analysts are split between cautious optimism and outright bullishness, while its operational metrics suggest resilience in a recovering industry. For contrarian value investors, the question is whether HST's current valuation and strategic positioning justify a buy, despite the mixed signals.

Divergent Analyst Views: A Tale of Two Narratives

The recent analyst ratings for HST reflect a tug-of-war between optimism and caution. Compass Point upgraded the stock to Buy with a $22.50 price target, citing Host's "strong transient demand and rate growth in resort markets" according to the report. JPMorgan and BMO Capital also raised their targets, while Evercore ISI downgraded to In Line, arguing that the stock's risk-reward profile has "balanced out" according to the presentation. The average 12-month price target of $19.19 implies a 10.2% upside from HST's closing price of $17.55, but the wide range ($18–$22.50) underscores lingering uncertainty.

This divergence is not uncommon in cyclical sectors like hospitality, where macroeconomic risks-such as softening business travel or rising insurance costs-can overshadow near-term gains. However, for contrarian investors, such dispersion often signals an opportunity. When analysts are divided, it suggests that the market has not yet fully priced in either the risks or the potential rewards.

Operational Resilience: A Foundation for Recovery

Host's Q3 2025 results provide a compelling case for its operational durability. The company reported a 0.8% year-over-year increase in comparable hotel Total RevPAR and a 0.2% rise in RevPAR, driven by robust demand in leisure-focused markets like Maui, where RevPAR grew 20%. These figures, coupled with a 475% beat on EPS expectations and a $1.33 billion revenue haul, demonstrate Host's ability to navigate a mixed-demand environment according to the earnings call transcript.

Strategic moves further bolster its position. The sale of the Washington Marriott at Metro Center and a new four-year capital partnership with Marriott aim to optimize asset performance and reduce costs according to the results. Meanwhile, Host's debt profile remains conservative: a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.85, a weighted average interest rate of 4.9%, and a Moody's upgrade to Baa2 with a stable outlook according to the financial analysis. These metrics suggest the company is well-positioned to withstand interest rate volatility and reinvest in growth.

Valuation Metrics: A Discounted Opportunity?

From a valuation standpoint, HST appears undervalued relative to its intrinsic metrics. A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis estimates its intrinsic value at $28.46 per share, implying a 38.1% discount to current levels according to the financial analysis. The stock's PE ratio of 16.43x also lags its historical fair ratio of 29.92x according to the financial analysis, suggesting the market is discounting future growth.

However, the P/FFO ratio-a critical metric for REITs-remains opaque. Host reported adjusted FFO per share of $0.35 in Q3 2025, down 2.8% year-over-year according to the results. While this decline could raise concerns, it's partially attributable to one-time gains in prior periods. The company's raised full-year EBITDAre guidance to $1.73 billion indicates confidence in its ability to stabilize cash flows according to the earnings call transcript. For contrarians, this presents a chance to invest at a discount while the market debates the sustainability of Host's earnings.

Sector Positioning: Contrarian Edge in a Cyclical Sector

The hotel industry's recovery in 2025 has been uneven. While leisure travel has rebounded strongly, business travel remains weak, and climate-related risks-such as rising insurance premiums- according to market analysis loom large. Host's focus on resort properties and its nearly fully unencumbered portfolio give it an edge in this environment. Its investment-grade balance sheet and diversified asset base also insulate it from sector-specific shocks.

Yet, the broader REIT sector's valuation is a wildcard. HST trades at a discount to its peers, with a fair value estimate of $18.86 versus its $17.84 price according to market analysis. This gap could narrow if Host executes its capital programs and maintains its RevPAR growth trajectory. However, investors must weigh this potential against macroeconomic headwinds, including the risk of a recession or prolonged high interest rates.

The Contrarian Case: Buy or Wait?

For value investors, HST's current valuation and operational strength make it an intriguing candidate. The company's conservative leverage, strategic asset management, and undervalued stock price align with the principles of margin of safety and long-term growth. The divergent analyst views, rather than a red flag, suggest that the market is underestimating Host's ability to navigate sector challenges.

That said, caution is warranted. The adjusted EBITDAre decline in Q3 and mixed business travel trends highlight vulnerabilities. Investors should monitor Host's ability to execute its capital programs and maintain RevPAR growth in 2026. For those with a 2–3 year horizon and a tolerance for sector volatility, HST offers a compelling risk-reward profile.

Conclusion

Host Hotels & Resorts is neither a clear-cut buy nor a sell-it's a nuanced opportunity. The company's operational resilience, conservative balance sheet, and undervaluation create a margin of safety, while the sector's cyclical nature introduces risk. For contrarian investors who believe in the long-term recovery of leisure travel and Host's strategic agility, the current price represents a compelling entry point. However, patience and a close watch on macroeconomic signals will be essential to unlocking its full potential.