D R Horton Stock Jumps 3.5% To $126.94 As Technicals Signal Bullish Momentum

D.R. Horton (DHI) shares closed at $126.94 on June 10, 2025, registering a significant 3.50% gain and extending its two-day advance to 5.14%. This strong positive momentum warrants a detailed technical assessment utilizing multiple methodologies.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action displays constructive patterns. The session on June 4th formed a robust bullish engulfing candle, closing near its high ($123.53) after trading from a low of $118.65, decisively breaking above the $123.50 resistance area that had capped rallies earlier in the month. Subsequent trading has seen the formation of smaller bullish candles (white soldiers), confirming the breach of that resistance, which now transforms into initial support. Key near-term resistance now appears around the $127.00-$127.50 zone, tested by the June 10th high of $127.08. Significant support is evident near $120.75-$121.00, marked by recent lows and the June 6th close.
Moving Average Theory
The moving averages depict a mixed trend picture. The current price ($126.94) remains significantly below a declining 200-day moving average (estimated ~$145 based on older data), confirming the long-term primary trend is still bearish. However, the price has recently pushed above the flat-to-slightly-declining 100-day MA (estimated near $130). Crucially, it is attempting to challenge the shorter-term 50-day MA (also estimated near $130). A sustained break above this 50/100-day cluster around $130 would suggest strengthening medium-term momentum and potentially signal a more durable recovery phase.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD indicator, plotted from 12-day and 26-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), shows signs of bottoming and potential reversal. The MACD line appears to be converging towards or crossing above its signal line from deeply negative territory around June 6th, coinciding with the recent price low. This crossover would suggest building bullish momentum. Concurrently, the KDJ indicator has likely rebounded from oversold territory (below 30) experienced in late May/early June. Currently, both the K and D lines are rising and may be approaching the 50 midline, with the %J line exhibiting strong upward momentum. This KDJ configuration supports the view of increasing near-term bullish pressure. However, neither oscillator is yet in overbought territory (MACD histogram still negative, K/D likely below 70), suggesting room for further upside before signals caution.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility, as measured by the Bollinger Bands (20-period, 2 standard deviations), contracted notably through May into early June, indicating a period of consolidation and compression before the recent breakout. The sharp price rise on June 4th pushed the price from near the lower band towards the middle band (20-day SMA, estimated ~$122.50). The follow-through on June 9th and 10th has seen the price challenge the upper band near $127.00. A close consistently at or above the upper band can signal an overextended move in the short term but also reflects strong momentum. The recent expansion from the tight bands supports the validity of the new upward move.
Volume-Price Relationship
Trading volume provides critical confirmation for the recent surge. The strong 3.50% gain on June 10th was accompanied by significantly elevated volume (3.51M shares), the highest since the significant up day on June 4th (3.72M shares). This above-average volume on consecutive advancing days validates the breakout above the $123.50 resistance level, suggesting conviction behind the buying. Conversely, the down day on June 6th also saw relatively higher volume, indicating residual selling pressure; however, the subsequent rebound on increasing volume is a more dominant signal currently.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI has recovered sharply from oversold levels below 30 seen in late May. Calculating based on average gains/losses over the past 14 days, the RSI is now estimated to be approaching 60 (e.g., ~55-58 range), moving out of the neutral zone (30-70) but still below the overbought threshold of 70. This indicates strengthening momentum without yet flashing an overbought warning. The upward trajectory supports the current bullish phase. However, its position warrants monitoring as it nears 70, where it would signal the rally may be maturing in the short term.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the major decline from the peak near $195 (April 2024) down to the recent swing low near $115 (early June 2025) provides key potential resistance levels. The 23.6% retracement level sits near $124.50, which the price has decisively surpassed. The next significant barrier is the 38.2% retracement level, calculated near $137.50. This level coincides remarkably closely with the zone of converging resistance formed by the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. This confluence makes the $137-$138 area a critical technical hurdle that bulls need to overcome to signal a more substantial recovery. Support below the current price aligns with prior resistance (now support) near $123.50 and the 23.6% level at $124.50, followed by the psychologically important $120 level.
Conclusion
The technical outlook for D.R. Horton has improved significantly in the near term. The convincing breakout above $123.50 resistance on elevated volume, supported by constructive candlestick patterns and bullish signals from the MACD and KDJ, indicates strong short-term upward momentum. The breach of the 100-day MA and challenge to the 50-day MA further bolsters this view. Key near-term resistance is encountered at the recent high of $127.08 and the psychologically important $130 level. However, the primary bearish trend signaled by the steeply declining 200-day MA remains intact. Major resistance converges around the $137.50-$138.00 area (Fibonacci 38.2% and 50/100-day MAs). Sustained trading above the 50-day MA near $130 would be needed to suggest the rally has the potential to test this major resistance zone. Near-term support is firm at $123.50-$124.50. The elevated RSI approaching (but not yet exceeding) 60 and the price testing the upper Bollinger Band suggest the move may see consolidation or pullback in the very near term, likely finding buyers near support levels given the strength of the breakout signals and improving momentum indicators. Overall, the near-term bias is bullish, tempered by the significant overhead resistance levels that define the larger bearish trend.