Horizen/Bitcoin Market Overview: ZENBTC Gaps Higher with Key Support Held

• ZENBTC formed a bullish reversal pattern late in the day after a sharp 15-minute drop.
• Price traded in a 0.7520–0.7938 range, with 0.7650 acting as a key support.
• Volume spiked during the afternoon dip, but turnover failed to confirm the move.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions near the session high, while MACD diverged in the final hours.
• Volatility expanded during the post-midnight rally, with Bollinger Bands showing a recent breakout.

Horizen/Bitcoin (ZENBTC) opened at 0.7575 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.7610 at the same time on 2025-10-08. The pair traded as high as 0.7938 and as low as 0.7520. Over the past 24 hours, total volume amounted to 9,913.73 ZEN, with a notional turnover of $747.89 (based on BTC value).

Structure & Formations

The daily candlestick structure showed a clear intra-day bearish thrust during the early afternoon hours, forming a sharp 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern. However, price quickly found a base near 0.7650 and formed a series of small bullish harami patterns, suggesting a potential short-term reversal. The 0.7650 level acted as a psychological floor, with a hammer-like pattern forming in the 20:45–21:00 ET window.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period moving average just before the 21:00 ET candle, signaling a potential short-term bullish bias. Meanwhile, on the daily chart, the 50-period MA remained above the 100- and 200-period MAs, suggesting a continuation of the broader uptrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a bearish divergence during the mid-afternoon sell-off, with the line crossing below the signal line as price hit a session low. However, a quick re-entry above the signal line during the 04:45–05:00 ET window signaled renewed buyer interest. RSI entered overbought territory near 0.7938 but dropped into neutral territory during the 05:45–06:00 ET window, hinting at exhausted momentum.

Price volatility surged in the post-midnight hours as Bollinger Bands expanded, with the 20-period band width increasing from 0.0008 to 0.0022. The price closed near the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting a breakout may be underway. However, the recent expansion also implies potential consolidation ahead. Volume surged during the 21:00–21:15 ET candle, reaching 1,732.65 ZEN traded, but the move was not confirmed by a corresponding rise in turnover.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover were positively correlated during the early morning hours, with the largest 15-minute turnover spike occurring between 04:45–05:00 ET. However, a divergence emerged during the 09:45–10:00 ET candle, where volume increased to 39.11 ZEN while turnover remained flat, potentially signaling a false breakout.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing low (0.7520) and swing high (0.7938), key retracement levels include 0.7700 (38.2%) and 0.7650 (61.8%). The current close at 0.7610 sits just below the 61.8% retracement level, suggesting a possible bounce from that key support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the 20-period moving average as a trigger for long entries when it crosses above the 50-period MA, particularly if RSI is below 50. This was observed during the 21:00–21:15 ET candle. A stop-loss could be placed below the 0.7650 support level, with a target near the 0.7700 (38.2%) Fibonacci level. However, this strategy should be tested against historical divergence in MACD and RSI to avoid false signals, as seen during the 09:45–10:00 ET candle.