Horizen/Bitcoin Market Overview for 2025-10-23

• ZENBTC declines 0.34% in 24 hours, hitting a low of $0.000101 and closing at $0.00009874
• Momentum weakens with RSI near 30, suggesting oversold conditions
• Volatility remains compressed, with price consolidating within Bollinger Bands
• Volume spikes observed in early morning hours followed by a sharp pullback
• No strong reversal patterns formed, suggesting continuation of current trend likely

ZENBTC opened at $0.00010996 at 12:00 ET−1 and closed at $0.00009874 at 12:00 ET. During the 24-hour period, the pair reached a high of $0.00010996 and a low of $0.000101. Total volume traded amounted to 5,816.01 ZEN, with a notional turnover of $5.75. The pair has been in a clear downtrend, with price failing to reclaim key resistance levels and showing no signs of a reversal pattern.

On the 15-minute chart, ZENBTC has been trading below both the 20- and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The 20SMA remains at $0.000104, while the 50SMA is at $0.000105, indicating a strengthening bearish bias. The MACD line has turned negative, with a bearish crossover and a declining histogram, suggesting the downtrend could continue. RSI has dropped to 29.8, signaling an oversold condition, though a reversal may not occur immediately without a volume spike or a bullish breakout.

Price action has remained within a tight Bollinger Band channel, with volatility at its lowest in recent cycles. The lower band sits at $0.0000985, and the upper band at $0.0001085, with the middle (20-period SMA) at $0.0001035. ZENBTC has tested the lower band multiple times, failing to break out and instead consolidating within. This consolidation suggests a possible retracement or continuation pattern on the near horizon. The 38.2% Fibonacci level at $0.0000998 and the 61.8% level at $0.0000971 could act as potential targets or pivot points in the next 24 hours.

Notably, volume spiked early in the session, particularly in the 15-minute candle at 18:00 ET, with 859.71 ZEN traded during a sharp drop from $0.00010849 to $0.00010666. This was followed by a period of lower volume and sideways movement. The divergence between price and volume during the latter part of the session indicates weaker conviction in the downtrend, which could be an early sign of a reversal if buyers re-enter.

The RSI hovering near 30 suggests the pair is nearing an oversold area, typically associated with potential bullish reversals. However, a reversal is more likely if the price breaks above the 20SMA or sees a surge in volume. A bearish continuation is probable if the price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Traders may watch the $0.0000987–$0.0001000 range for signs of a breakout or consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the current RSI positioning near oversold levels and the bearish bias in the 15-minute and daily charts, a backtest using RSI-based entries could provide useful insight into potential strategies. For example, a strategy that enters long when RSI drops below 30 and exits when it crosses back above 50 may offer a viable method for capitalizing on potential rebounds. This could be tested with daily closing prices on the ZENBTC pair, applying a 14-period RSI, and incorporating a 3-day holding period to reduce noise from short-term fluctuations. Including stop-loss levels at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and take-profit levels at the 38.2% retracement could help manage risk while capturing potential rebounds. A further analysis would require a larger historical dataset and the inclusion of volume data to validate the strength of RSI signals.