Hooked Protocol/Tether Market Overview (2025-09-19)

• Price dropped from 0.1174 to 0.1103 over 24 hours, forming bearish momentum
• RSI hit oversold levels, but volume failed to confirm a reversal
• Volatility expanded during late-night selloffs, with Bollinger Bands widening
• Key support identified at 0.1103, resistance at 0.1162–0.1166
• Fibonacci 61.8% level at 0.1130 may trigger a bounce

Hooked Protocol/Tether (HOOKUSDT) opened at 0.1155 on 2025-09-18 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.1174 before closing at 0.1103 as of 2025-09-19 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a low of 0.1103 and a total volume of 19,434,482.8 with a notional turnover of $2,145,461. Price action showed a sharp bearish trend, especially overnight.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart formed multiple bearish engulfing patterns from 02:00 to 05:00 ET, signaling strong selling pressure. A doji formed at 03:45 ET, suggesting indecision. The most recent swing low at 0.1103 (2025-09-19 15:00 ET) appears as a potential near-term support level, with a key resistance at 0.1162–0.1166. Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the recent bearish move sits at 0.1130.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed bearishly, confirming a downtrend. On the daily chart, price is well below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day MAs, indicating long-term bearish bias and weak near-term reversal signals.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative and remained bearish throughout the session, with bearish divergence on the histogram. RSI fell to oversold territory, hitting 26, but failed to trigger a reversal, indicating potential exhaustion in the bearish move or a deeper correction is needed for a bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the early morning selloff, with price testing the lower band at 0.1103. This suggests heightened volatility and potential reversal setups if price consolidates near the lower band. However, a break below 0.1103 could extend the volatility and test the next support levels.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the late-night decline, particularly from 03:00 to 05:00 ET, with a peak of 1.08M at 03:45 ET. Notional turnover increased in line with price action, but volume failed to spike on the final 15-minute candles as price hit the 0.1103 low, suggesting weak follow-through from sellers and possible exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the major bearish swing from 0.1174 to 0.1103, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels are at approximately 0.1146 and 0.1130, respectively. Price may find temporary support at 0.1130 if the correction continues. A break above 0.1130 could bring in short-covering and test 0.1146 for further validation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could use a combination of MACD crossover and RSI divergence to identify potential reversal entry points near the 0.1130 Fibonacci level. A long entry could be triggered on a close above 0.1130 after RSI shows a bullish divergence or MACD turns positive. Stop-loss could be placed below the 0.1103 support. This approach aligns with the current technical structure, volatility contraction, and potential exhaustion in the bearish trend.