US Home Prices Rise 2.7% Annually in April 2025

S&P Global reported a 2.7% annual gain in US home prices for April 2025, a decrease from the 3.4% gain in March. New York led with a 7.9% annual gain, followed by Chicago and Detroit. The overall annual gain marks the slowest year-over-year appreciation since mid-2023. Sun Belt markets like Tampa and Dallas experienced declines, with Tampa falling 2.2% year-over-year.

New York, June 19, 2025 – S&P Global reported a 2.7% annual gain in U.S. home prices for April 2025, marking a slight decrease from the 3.4% gain observed in March. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, released on June 24, 2025, indicated that while the national trend remained positive, regional disparities were significant [1].

New York City led the pack with a robust 7.9% annual gain, followed by Chicago and Detroit with increases of 6.0% and 5.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, Sun Belt markets such as Tampa and Dallas experienced notable declines. Tampa posted a 2.2% year-over-year decrease, while Dallas turned negative at -0.2%, becoming the only two metros to report annual declines [1].

The overall annual gain marks the slowest year-over-year appreciation since mid-2023. This deceleration is attributed to a combination of affordability constraints and a shift in regional leadership. Markets that were once pandemic darlings are now lagging, while traditionally stable markets in the Midwest and Northeast are setting the pace [1].

Nicholas Godec, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, commented, "The housing market continued its gradual deceleration in April, with annual price gains slowing to their most modest pace in nearly two years. What's particularly striking is how this cycle has reshuffled regional leadership—markets that were pandemic darlings are now lagging, while historically steady performers in the Midwest and Northeast are setting the pace. This rotation signals a maturing market that's increasingly driven by fundamentals rather than speculative fervor." [1]

The monthly performance also showed continued seasonal strength but with notable cooling from March's peak. Eighteen metros posted positive monthly gains before seasonal adjustment, led by Detroit (+1.5%), Boston (+1.5%), and New York (+1.2%). However, after seasonal adjustment, the National Index actually declined 0.4%, suggesting that April's 0.6% raw gain was weaker than typical spring patterns would predict [1].

The underlying market dynamics remain challenging but not dire. Mortgage rates sustained their mid-6% range throughout April, keeping monthly payment burdens near generational highs and effectively pricing out significant segments of potential buyers. Yet housing supply remains severely constrained, with existing homeowners reluctant to surrender their sub-4% pandemic-era rates and new construction failing to meet demand. This supply-demand imbalance continues to provide a price floor, preventing the sharp corrections that some had feared [1].

In summary, the housing market in the U.S. is experiencing a transition. The era of broad-based, rapid price appreciation appears to be over, replaced by a more selective environment where local fundamentals matter more than national trends. For investors and policymakers alike, this shift toward geographic divergence and moderate growth may represent a healthier, more sustainable trajectory than the unsustainable boom experienced just a few years ago [1].

References:
[1] https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-index-records-27-annual-gain-april-2025-2025-06-24