Home Depot (HD) Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strike Levels at $360-$370 Offer Strategic Entry Points for December 19 Expiry

• HD trades at $357.29, down 0.05% with volume at 1.55M shares.
• Options open interest shows 0.89 put/call skew, with heavy call buying at $360-$370 strikes.
• Analysts mixed on 2026 outlook: Telsey cuts PT to $430 but keeps Outperform; Bernstein stays cautious.

Here’s the core insight: Options data and technicals align on a short-term bullish setup, but long-term uncertainty lingers. HD’s price is testing its 30D MA ($358.81) while sitting below key 100D and 200D averages. The RSI at 66.2 suggests momentum isn’t overbought yet, and the MACD histogram turning positive hints at a potential near-term reversal. But don’t ignore the $366.97 resistance cluster from the 200D MA—breaking that could spark a rally.

"Bullish Whales" at $360-$370 vs. Cautious Puts at $335-$350

Let’s start with the options chain. This Friday’s top call open interest piles up at $362.5 (OI: 2,724) and $370 (OI: 2,229), while puts dominate at $335 (OI: 2,739) and $350 (OI: 1,388). It’s a classic "bull trap" scenario: big money is hedging downside risk below $350 but betting on a rebound toward $370. The next Friday’s calls stretch even further, with $415 (OI: 2,406) and $420 (OI: 2,189) strikes showing aggressive positioning.

Why does this matter? High open interest at these strikes means liquidity. If HD breaks above $360, the $370 call wall could create a self-fulfilling prophecy as options buyers start covering positions. Conversely, a drop below $350 might trigger panic selling—watch the $345 put (OI: 1,185) as a key stress test. No block trades to note, so no sudden institutional moves to worry about.

News Flow: Optimism vs. Realism in the Housing Market

Home Depot’s own 2026 outlook hinges on a housing rebound, and the news reflects that tension. Telsey’s cut to $430 from $455 shows analysts are scaling back near-term optimism, but the "Outperform" rating keeps the door open for a recovery trade. Bernstein’s "Hold" call is more cautious, tying HD’s fate to interest rate trends—a reminder that this stock is a barometer for the housing market.

Meanwhile, the by-law changes and security breach are minor governance issues that won’t move the needle much. The real story is the "market recovery case" HD outlined—investors are pricing in a best-case scenario where home renovations surge, but current spending remains soft. This creates a narrative where options buyers are hedging against a slow recovery while short-term traders target a bounce off $350 support.

Actionable Trades: Calls at $360-$370, Stock Buy Setup at $350.63

For options: Buy HD20251219C360 and HD20251219C370 expiring Dec 19. These strikes sit at the intersection of open interest and technical support. If HD closes above $360 Friday, the $370 call could see explosive gains. For a longer play, HD20251219C415 offers 20%+ move potential if housing news improves.

For stock: Consider entry near $350.63 (30D support) with a stop just below $347.5. Target $368.79 (200D resistance) as a first exit, then $374.69 (200D average). The RSI isn’t screaming "buy," but the MACD crossover and Bollinger Band positioning suggest a test of upper bounds by year-end.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Setup and Macro Risks

In short, HD is caught between a rock (high rates) and a hard place (soft demand). The options market is pricing in a $360+ rebound by Dec 19, but Bernstein’s caution and Telsey’s trimmed PT keep the long-term outlook guarded. If you’re in, manage risk aggressively—this isn’t a "buy and forget" trade. But for nimble traders, the $360-$370 call wall and $350 support zone offer a clear, data-backed setup to capitalize on a potential housing-driven rebound.

Bottom line: This week’s options flow and technicals favor a short-term bullish bias, but don’t bet the farm. The real test comes in January 2026—when housing data will either validate or shatter these expectations.