Hollywood's Last Stand: Can Voight's Plan Revive Cinemas and Production?

The U.S. film industry is in crisis. Over the past decade, Los Angeles alone has lost nearly 40% of its film and television production—a decline fueled by global tax incentives, labor strikes, and rising costs. Now, Jon Voight, President Donald Trump’s “special ambassador to Hollywood,” has unveiled a sweeping reform plan aimed at reversing this exodus. At its core: federal tax incentives for production companies, state-level subsidies, and even tariffs on foreign films. But can these measures truly revive Hollywood—and what do they mean for investors?

The answer hinges on whether Voight’s blueprint can counteract the gravitational pull of countries like Canada, the U.K., and Hungary, which now offer subsidies far outpacing U.S. federal support.

The Voight Plan: Federal Tax Breaks and State-Level Gambits

Voight’s strategy centers on three pillars: federal tax incentives, state-level subsidies, and protectionist tariffs. The federal component proposes accelerating write-offs under Section 181 of the U.S. tax code, allowing production costs to be deducted faster. This would lower the financial burden on studios—a critical move as global content spending is projected to hit $248 billion by 2025 (up from $200 billion in 2023).

State governments are also stepping up. California, the traditional heart of Hollywood, plans to expand its Film & TV Tax Credit Program to $750 million annually—up from $330 million—while simplifying eligibility rules to attract smaller productions. Meanwhile, Georgia, a longtime production hub, has raised local rebates for feature films to $175,000 per project and TV shows to $300,000, stacking alongside its 30% transferable tax credit.

But the boldest move is Trump’s proposed 100% tariff on foreign-made films, framed as a national security measure. While enforcement remains murky—given the global supply chains of even U.S.-based films—the tariff underscores the administration’s “America First” agenda.

The Challenges: Unions, Tariffs, and Fiscal Realities

Despite the ambition, hurdles loom large. Unions like SAG-AFTRA and the Writers Guild of America have yet to endorse the plan, citing concerns over its feasibility and potential inequities. “Tax incentives alone won’t fix a broken system,” said one union official, noting that labor strikes and pandemic-era disruptions have already cost the industry 25% of its jobs since 2022.

Then there’s the tariff. While tariffs on goods like steel or aluminum have been politically viable, Hollywood’s reliance on global talent and financing makes a film tariff nearly unenforceable. The Motion Picture Association reports that U.S. films earned a $15.3 billion trade surplus in 2023, a figure that could collapse if retaliatory tariffs are imposed on American movies abroad.

Investment Implications: Winners and Losers in the New Landscape

For investors, the plan’s success—or failure—will reshape the sector.

1. Cinema Chains:
   Theaters could benefit indirectly if the plan spurs a surge in U.S. productions, boosting the supply of blockbuster movies. AMC Entertainment (AMC), the largest U.S. cinema chain, might see higher foot traffic if theaters prioritize local films. shows volatility tied to pandemic recovery, but a renaissance in local production could stabilize demand.

2. Production Studios:
   Studios like Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) and Paramount Global (PARA) stand to gain from lower production costs via tax breaks. However, their international divisions may face headwinds if tariffs spark trade wars.

3. State-Specific Plays:
   California’s tax credit expansion could boost local infrastructure firms like Los Angeles-based soundstage operators, while Georgia’s rebates favor companies with deep roots in the state, such as Pinewood Atlanta.

4. Global Competitors:
   Canada’s VFX industry—already booming thanks to its 36% tax credit—might see reduced U.S. competition, while New Zealand’s $200 million annual subsidy fund could further entrench its dominance in blockbusters.

Conclusion: A Gamble with High Stakes

Voight’s plan is a high-risk, high-reward gamble. If successful, it could reverse Hollywood’s decline, creating jobs and revitalizing local infrastructure. California’s proposed tax credit expansion alone could generate $3 billion annually in economic activity, per state estimates. But without buy-in from major unions and a coherent federal budget to fund incentives, the plan risks becoming another political spectacle.

The data tells a clear story: U.S. film production dropped 26% between 2021 and 2023, while global competitors like Canada and the U.K. have seen growth. Investors must weigh the promise of federal subsidies against the political and economic headwinds. For now, the best bets lie in states like California and Georgia, where tangible incentives are already in motion—and in global players that can weather any U.S. trade turmoil.

In the end, Hollywood’s survival may depend on whether Voight’s vision can outpace the very forces that are pulling the industry apart.