On Holding AG Stock Tumbles 8.26% as Earnings Miss and Nike Rivalry Drive 143rd Trading Volume Rank

On August 14, 2025, On Holding AG (ONON) closed at $44.45, down 8.26% after a $0.66 billion trading volume ranked it 143rd in market activity. The stock’s decline followed a second-quarter earnings report marked by a statutory loss of CHF0.12 per share, despite revenue exceeding estimates by 6.4% to CHF749 million. Analysts revised 2025 earnings per share forecasts downward by 17% to CHF0.49, while maintaining revenue projections of CHF2.96 billion, reflecting reduced confidence in profit margins amid rising competition.

Jefferies initiated a 'Sell' rating on ONON, citing slowing growth and intensified rivalry with Nike. The downgrade, coupled with the earnings miss, triggered heightened volatility, with options trading showing 20 contracts above 50% implied volatility. Technical indicators suggest oversold conditions, as the stock traded below its 200-day moving average of $52.18 and an RSI of 44.43. However, a 701x price-to-earnings ratio and exposure to global supply chain risks, including 40% tariffs on Vietnamese imports, underscore structural challenges.

Analysts remain divided on long-term prospects. While 2025 revenue growth is forecast to slow to 8.9% from 32% historically, it still outpaces the industry’s projected 5.8% annual growth. Price targets remain unchanged at $65.95, with a wide range from $40.11 to $79.07 indicating divergent views. The 3-day win rate for ONON after an intraday drop of -8% stands at 54.17%, with a 30-day maximum return of 6.80%, suggesting a moderate probability of short-term recovery.

A backtest of a strategy buying the top 500 stocks by daily volume and holding for one day from 2022 to 2025 yielded a 1-day average return of 0.98% and a total return of 31.52% over 365 days. This highlights the strategy’s ability to capture momentum but also reflects market volatility and timing risks.