Should You Hold or Sell HOLX Stock as It Nears the End of Public Phase?

Hologic HOLX closed yesterday’s trading session at $75.05, down 0.1% from the previous close. The stock now sits nearly 1.2% below the buyout cash offer of $76 per share from Blackstone & TPG. Announced in October 2025, the deal carries an aggregate purchase price of up to $79 per share, including a non-tradable contingent value right (CVR) worth up to $3 per share, tied to certain Breast Health revenue goals. This represents a premium of roughly 46% to the May 23, 2025 closing price, the last full trading day before media reports of a possible transaction emerged.

Based in Marlborough, MA, Hologic develops and sells a wide range of diagnostic products, including molecular diagnostics tests, medical imaging systems and surgical offerings for women’s health and well-being through early detection and treatment. Speaking of the deal, Blackstone said that it has tracked Hologic for years and long admired the impact of its technologies on patients worldwide. TPG, known for backing healthcare innovation, views the company as a compelling opportunity to help develop next-generation solutions and enhance patient care.

At a special stockholder meeting held on Feb. 5, 2026, Hologic shareholders overwhelmingly approved the take-private proposal, marking a key step toward closing the deal.

Hologic’s Price Performance & Valuation

So far this year, Hologic shares have edged up 0.7%, outperforming both its industry and the broader Medical sector. Industry peers GE HealthCare GEHC and Becton, Dickinson & Company BDX have also trailed Hologic in the same time frame, with their stocks down 11.8% and 16.7%, respectively.

HOLX YTD Price Performance

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On the other hand, the company’s valuation looks a bit stretched. Based on forward 12-month price/sales (P/S), HOLX trades at 3.84X, above its median of 3.54X and the sector average of 2.28X. The stock carries a Value Score of C.

Hologic One Year-P/S Ratio

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In comparison, GEHC traded at 1.51X P/S, while BDX has a P/S of 2.34X, putting both in a more favorable position.

Hologic’s Current Snapshot

The company’s first-quarter fiscal 2026 results were disappointing in its Diagnostics division, where revenues declined 2.7% in constant currency. The core Molecular Diagnostics business fell 4.6% in constant currency, weighed down by lower sales of COVID-19 tests and legacy assays for sexually transmitted infections (STIs). While BV CV/TV and Panther Fusion assays showed continued strength, they were not able to fully offset the decline.

Added to this, the ongoing U.S.-China trade war and other Chinese policies pressured sales of the Cytology products, particularly the ThinPrep Pap Tests, dragging down the Asia-Pacific revenues. In February 2026, Hologic’s Aptima HPV Assay received FDA approval for clinician-collected human papillomavirus (HPV) primary screening.

Hologic generates a larger portion of its Breast Health revenues from service contracts tied to its global gantry installed base, in line with its diversification strategy. The 2024 acquisition of Endomagnetics added cutting-edge products and strong R&D capabilities to the Interventional Breast business. In fiscal 2025, Hologic started selling Endomag products directly through its North American salesforce to tap into the wireless localization market.

Innovations such as the Genius AI Detection PRO solution enhance accuracy and efficiency in cancer screening. Hologic is set to commercially launch the Envision Mammography Platform this year, offering a high-speed 3D mammogram with an industry-leading 2.5-second scan time. GYN Surgical revenues in the first quarter grew 7.5% in constant currency, mainly due to increased sales of the acquired Gynesonics business, as well as MyoSure and Fluent devices.

In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Hologic recorded tariff costs of $15.3 million. Even with mitigation efforts taken and planned, direct tariff costs are expected to total nearly $10-$14 million per quarter, excluding any additional cost pressures from vendors and suppliers. The company ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments of $2.36 billion and $6 million in current debt on its balance sheet.

HOLX: Earnings Projections

The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects the company’s fiscal 2026 earnings to increase 5.2% on 4% revenue growth. The projected earnings per share (EPS) of $4.48 has increased by 1 cent in the past 30 days.

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Conclusion

Hologic has been a longstanding player in the women’s health space, with a diverse lineup of diagnostics, breast health and surgical products. Its latest quarterly performance showed pressure in Diagnostics, while the other two divisions reported positive results. Tariffs have been a drag, though the company continued to maintain a solid liquidity position. That said, the stock is now trading very close to the buyout cash price, leaving little room for upside potential. It also trades at a premium relative to its sector and peers. Given these factors, it seems prudent for investors to consider exiting their position right now.

HOLX currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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