Hinge Health Plummets 13.8%: What's Behind the Sudden Selloff?

Summary
• Hinge Health (HNGE) crashes 13.8% intraday to $46.06, erasing $7.37 from its value.
• Q3 2025 revenue jumps 53% to $154.2M, with free cash flow surging to $81.3M.
• Technicals show RSI at 59.8, MACD -0.49, and Bollinger Bands pinning price near the lower band.

Today’s market action on HNGE defies earnings optimism, as the stock collapses amid mixed sector dynamics. The selloff raises urgent questions about valuation disconnects, guidance skepticism, and options-driven volatility. With turnover at 3.1M shares and a -3.97 P/E ratio, investors must decode whether this is a buying opportunity or a warning signal.

Q3 Earnings Surge Fails to Stem Share Sell-Off
Hinge Health’s Q3 results showcased 53% revenue growth and $81.3M free cash flow, yet the stock cratered 13.8%. The disconnect stems from three factors: 1) Guidance for Q4 revenue ($155-157M) fell short of implied expectations from its 53% YoY growth trajectory; 2) The company’s -3.97 P/E ratio highlights unprofitability despite cash flow strength, deterring value investors; 3) Options data reveals heavy put buying (e.g., HNGE20251121P45 with 79.98% IV) signaling bearish positioning. The market is pricing in execution risks around the new engagement-based pricing model and R&D intensity (34.8M stock-based comp in Q3).

Healthcare Sector Splits as Hinge Health Dives
While HNGE tumbles, sector leader Teladoc Health (TDOC) rallies 1.46%, reflecting divergent investor sentiment. TDOC’s recent partnership expansions and stable margins contrast with HNGE’s unprofitable model. The healthcare sector’s mixed performance underscores a shift toward established digital health players over high-growth but unprofitable peers. HNGE’s 53% revenue growth is impressive, but its -3.97 P/E lags TDOC’s normalized valuation, amplifying the sell-off.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility with Strategic Contracts
• MACD: -0.4946 (bearish divergence), RSI: 59.83 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: 45.67-52.95 (oversold near lower band)
• 30D MA: 50.52 (price below), 100D MA: 50.80 (neutral)

Key levels to watch: 45.67 (intraday low), 49.50 (intraday high), and 50.34 (middle Bollinger Band). Short-term bearish momentum suggests a test of 45.67, with potential for a rebound into the 47.74-50.34 range. The 13.8% selloff has created high-conviction options opportunities:

• HNGE20251121P45 (Put, 45 strike, Nov 21 expiry):
- IV: 79.98% (high volatility)
- Delta: -0.3999 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0400 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0484 (responsive to price swings)
- Turnover: 27,841 (liquid)
- LVR: 18.35% (high leverage)
- Payoff at 5% downside (43.76): $1.24/share
This put offers asymmetric upside if the selloff accelerates, with strong liquidity and volatility tailwinds.

• HNGE20251121C45 (Call, 45 strike, Nov 21 expiry):
- IV: 74.90% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.6024 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1432 (aggressive time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0516 (high gamma)
- Turnover: 76,680 (very liquid)
- LVR: 12.70% (moderate leverage)
- Payoff at 5% downside: $0.00 (out of the money)
This call is ideal for volatility traders expecting a rebound above 49.50, leveraging high gamma for rapid directional moves.

Aggressive bulls should consider HNGE20251121C45 into a break above 49.50, while bears should target HNGE20251121P45 if 45.67 holds.

Backtest Hinge Health Stock Performance
I attempted to pull Hinge Health (HNGE.N) daily price data so I could identify every session since 2022-01-01 when the intraday decline exceeded 14 % (our “event” definition). However, the data-retrieval request did not succeed – the system could not locate the underlying price-data node.To move forward, I can proceed in one of two ways:1. Retry the automatic retrieval – I’ll adjust the query parameters to match the data provider’s exact naming conventions and fetch HNGE’s daily OHLC data again, then detect all ≥14 % intraday plunges and run the event-based back-test.2. If you already have (or can supply) the specific trade dates when HNGE fell ≥14 % intraday, I can skip the data-pull step and run the back-test directly with those dates.Please let me know which approach you prefer (or provide any additional information you might have), and I’ll proceed accordingly.

Act Now: Hinge Health at Pivotal Crossroads
The 13.8% selloff may not be sustainable if HNGE’s 53% revenue growth and $81.3M free cash flow drive a rebound. Key signals to monitor: 1) Whether the stock holds above 45.67 (intraday low), 2) A close above 50.34 (middle Bollinger Band), and 3) TDOC’s 1.46% rally as a sector barometer. Investors should prioritize the HNGE20251121P45 put for downside protection or the C45 call for a volatility play. Watch for a 49.50 breakout or breakdown below 45.67 to dictate next steps.