¿Está subvaluada la salud de Hims y Hers (HIMS) en el medio de los riesgos regulatorios y las proyecciones de alto crecimiento?

The valuation debate surrounding Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) reflects a tension between its explosive growth metrics and the inherent risks of operating in a highly regulated, competitive telehealth and wellness sector. As the company navigates a rapidly evolving landscape, investors must weigh its current financial performance, industry benchmarks, and long-term strategic vision against regulatory headwinds and market volatility.

Valuation Realism: A High P/E Ratio in a Resilient Sector

HIMS's third-quarter 2025 results underscore its growth potential: revenue surged 49% year-over-year to $599.0 million, while adjusted EBITDA rose 53% to $78.4 million, and its subscriber base expanded to 2.5 million. Analysts at Sahm Capital argue that the stock is undervalued, with a fair value estimate of $86.09 versus its recent closing price of $39.02. However, the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 66.4x-well above both its own fair P/E of 47.8x and the healthcare services industry average of 21.9x-raises concerns about overvaluation.

This discrepancy highlights a broader trend in the healthcare sector. As of Q4 2025, the U.S. healthcare services industry trades at a P/E of 26.4x, a 12% premium to its 3-year average, reflecting market confidence despite rising operational costs. While HIMS's valuation exceeds industry norms, its high-growth trajectory-driven by expanding telehealth adoption and a diversified product portfolio-suggests investors are willing to pay a premium for disruptive potential. The key question remains whether the company can sustain its earnings growth to justify the elevated multiple.

Regulatory Risks: Navigating a Shifting GLP-1 Landscape

HIMS's exposure to regulatory risks, particularly in its GLP-1 weight-loss segment, complicates its valuation narrative. The company's partnership with Novo Nordisk ended abruptly after the pharmaceutical giant terminated its supply of compounded semaglutide, a move that triggered a 35% stock price drop. This incident underscores the fragility of HIMS's business model in a segment dominated by large pharma players.

Recent regulatory shifts, including the FDA's announcement that semaglutide is no longer in short supply, have forced HIMS to pivot to generic alternatives like liraglutide. While this adaptation is necessary for compliance, it erodes HIMS's pricing power, as major competitors like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have slashed GLP-1 drug prices to capture market share. The company's projected $725 million in GLP-1 revenue for 2025-down from $225 million in 2024-illustrates the volatility of this segment.

Long-Term Potential: A Vision for 2030

Despite these challenges, HIMS's long-term growth prospects remain compelling. The company aims to achieve $6.5 billion in revenue by 2030, a target underpinned by its expansion into international markets via the Zava acquisition and its focus on AI-driven personalized treatment planning. Its 2025 revenue guidance of $2.34 billion to $2.36 billion, supported by a 2.8 million subscriber base and an average order value of $194, suggests strong near-term momentum.

The telehealth and wellness sector itself is a tailwind. A report by OpenPR notes that the global telehealth wellness market is booming, driven by rising demand for accessible, affordable healthcare solutions. HIMS's emphasis on affordability and consumer empowerment aligns with this trend, positioning it to benefit from broader industry growth.

Conclusion: A Calculated Bet on Disruption

HIMS's valuation appears to straddle the line between optimism and caution. While its current P/E ratio suggests overvaluation, the company's revenue growth, subscriber expansion, and strategic adaptability in a high-growth sector justify a degree of optimism. However, regulatory risks-particularly in the GLP-1 segment-and competitive pressures from pharma giants introduce significant uncertainty.

For long-term investors, HIMS represents a calculated bet on the future of telehealth. If the company can navigate regulatory hurdles, maintain its innovation edge, and execute its international expansion, its fair value estimate of $86.09 may prove prescient. Yet, the path to $6.5 billion in 2030 will require resilience, agility, and a continued ability to differentiate in a crowded market.