Can High-NA EUV Adoption Accelerate ASML's Long-Term Revenue Growth?

ASML Holdings’ ASML High-NA EUV is starting to move from development to early adoption. The company has shipped its first High-NA systems, and Intel has accepted its EXE:5200 tool for high-volume manufacturing. Other customers are still in testing and qualification stages. Management stated that key performance metrics, such as imaging and overlay, are meeting expectations. This suggests that the technology is ready, which reduces some execution risk as adoption scales.

ASML's customers are moving from 4 nanometers (nm) to 3nm, and some are also ramping 2nm. The transition to advanced nodes requires more EUV layers and higher precision and is driving the demand for ASML's High-NA EUV tools. At the same time, AI demand is driving capacity expansion in logic and memory. ASML noted that its customers have become more confident about long-term AI demand and are increasing investment plans. This supports demand for advanced lithography tools, including High-NA EUV tools, over time.

From a financial standpoint, EUV remains the main growth driver. Bookings at the end of the fourth quarter were €13.2 billion, out of which €7.4 billion was from EUV. In 2025, ASML's backlog stood at €38.8 billion, which included €25.5 billion in EUV. In 2026, ASML expects revenues to be in the range of €34-€39 billion. Here, the company's EUV business is expected to grow significantly on a year-over-year basis.

The above-mentioned factors show that High-NA EUV is important for ASML’s long-term revenue growth, especially as the company targets €44-€60 billion in revenues by 2030. For now, High-NA EUV adoption is still in the early stages, where the company long-term growth depends on broader EUV demand rather than High-NA alone. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ASML's 2026 and 2027 revenues indicates year-over-year growth of 18.9% and 18.2%, respectively.

How Competitors Fare Against ASML

ASML competes with companies like Applied Materials AMAT and Lam Research LRCX in the wafer fabrication equipment space.

Applied Materials recently expanded its partnership with Micron to build better memory chips for AI. Here, the goal is to develop next-generation DRAM, high-bandwidth memory and NAND solutions to increase speed and performance while reducing power use. The work will be done at AMAT’s EPIC Center in Silicon Valley and Micron’s R&D center in Boise, ID. Teams from both companies will work together to speed up development and move ideas into production faster.

Lam Research and IBM have signed a five-year agreement to work on chip technology below 1 nanometer. Under this agreement, LRCX and IBM will focus on developing new materials, new manufacturing processes, and High-NA EUV lithography to support future logic chips. Both companies will focus on solving the next set of challenges needed for High NA EUV and sub-1nm chips.

ASML’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

Shares of ASML have surged 47% in the past six months compared with the Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s decline of 1.7%.

ASML 6-Month Performance Chart

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From a valuation standpoint, ASML trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 12.01X, higher than the sector’s average of 5.91X.

ASML Forward 12-Month (P/S) Valuation Chart

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ASML’s 2026 and 2027 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 21.7% and 22.5%, respectively. The consensus estimate for fiscal 2026 and 2027 has been revised upward in the past 30 days.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

ASML currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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