Hesai (HSAI) Surges 10.44% Intraday Amid Volatile Technicals and Options Frenzy – What’s Fueling the Move?

Summary
• Hesai (HSAI) rockets 10.44% to $26.12, piercing the $26.46 intraday high
• RSI plummets to 24.59, signaling extreme oversold conditions
• Options frenzy: 2026-02-20 $25 call sees 168% price surge and 12.98% leverage ratio
• Dynamic PE of 77.52 highlights stretched valuation amid technical divergence

Hesai’s explosive intraday rally defies its short-term bearish trend, with technical indicators and options activity painting a high-stakes narrative. The stock’s 10.44% jump—its largest single-day move since 2023—has ignited a surge in volatility-sensitive options, particularly near-the-money calls. With the 52-week high at $30.85 still in reach, traders are scrambling to decode whether this is a short-covering rebound or a catalyst-driven breakout.

Oversold RSI and Short-Term Bounce Trigger Volatility-Driven Rebound
Hesai’s 10.44% intraday surge is primarily driven by its extreme oversold RSI (24.59), which has historically acted as a short-term reversal trigger. The stock’s price action—climbing from its opening at $24.05 to $26.12—aligns with a classic short-covering pattern, as the 200-day moving average (22.47) and Bollinger Bands lower bound (22.39) have repeatedly served as psychological support levels. While no company-specific news was reported, the technical divergence between the long-term ranging trend and the short-term bearish exhaustion has attracted algorithmic and options-driven buying pressure.

Automotive Components Sector Quiet as Hesai Defies Trend
High-Volatility Options and ETF Neutralization: Navigating HSAI’s Imbalance
• 200-day average: 22.47 (below current price)
• RSI: 24.59 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.096 (bearish), Histogram: -0.594 (diverging)
• Bollinger Bands: 30.13 (upper), 26.26 (middle), 22.39 (lower)

Hesai’s technical profile suggests a high-probability bounce from oversold levels, but the long-term ranging pattern (52W low: $10.41) warns against overcommitting. Key levels to monitor: 1) 26.46 (intraday high), 2) 25.42 (30D MA), and 3) 22.47 (200D MA). The 2026-02-20 $25 call (HSAI20260220C25) and 2026-03-20 $25 call (HSAI20260320C25) stand out for their high leverage ratios (12.98% and 8.07%) and moderate deltas (0.65 and 0.62), offering amplified exposure to a potential breakout.

• HSAI20260220C25 (Call, $25 strike, 2026-02-20):
- IV: 66.74% (elevated)
- LVR: 12.98% (high)
- Delta: 0.652853 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.085580 (rapid decay)
- Gamma: 0.104660 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 12,256 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($27.428): $2.428/share gain
- This contract benefits from high gamma and leverage, ideal for a short-term breakout.

• HSAI20260320C25 (Call, $25 strike, 2026-03-20):
- IV: 74.27% (high)
- LVR: 8.07% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.622792 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.042109 (moderate decay)
- Gamma: 0.057140 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 8,826 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($27.428): $2.428/share gain
- Offers balanced risk/reward with extended expiration for trend confirmation.

Aggressive bulls may consider HSAI20260220C25 into a break above $26.46, while cautious traders should eye the 2026-03-20 contract for a more measured approach.

Backtest Hesai Stock Performance
The backtest of HSAI's performance following a 10% intraday increase from 2022 to now reveals a significant underperformance. The strategy yielded a return of -6.60%, lagging the benchmark by 75.35%. With a maximum drawdown of 84.06% and a Sharpe ratio of -0.03, the strategy indicated a high-risk profile with considerable volatility.

Hesai at Inflection Point: Break Above $26.46 Could Ignite 52W High Hunt
Hesai’s 10.44% intraday surge has created a critical juncture: a break above $26.46 could validate the short-term bounce and set up a test of the 52-week high at $30.85. Traders must watch the 200-day moving average (22.47) for support and the RSI (24.59) for oversold exhaustion. While the sector leader Borgwarner (BWA) has only gained 3.53%, Hesai’s standalone momentum suggests this is a stock-specific trade. Position sizing should reflect the high volatility and leverage ratios in options. Watch for $26.46 breakout or regulatory reaction—either could redefine the near-term trajectory.