Resiliencia de Hershey en un entorno de altos costos: Estrategia de gestión de costos y sostenibilidad de las marjas a causa de la volatilidad del cacao y de los aranceles

The Hershey Company (NYSE: HSY) faces a complex macroeconomic landscape in 2025, marked by soaring cocoa prices, escalating tariffs, and margin compression. Despite these headwinds, the company's strategic cost management initiatives and diversification efforts have positioned it to navigate volatility with a degree of resilience. This analysis evaluates Hershey's near-term investment potential through the lens of Stifel Nicolaus's updated price target and ongoing "Hold" rating, while dissecting the interplay between operational efficiency, pricing strategies, and external pressures.

Stifel's Cautious Outlook: A Barometer of Market Sentiment

Stifel Nicolaus, a key player in equity research, has maintained a "Hold" rating on Hershey's stock, reflecting a balanced view of the company's challenges and mitigants. While the firm initially raised its price target from $185 to $195 in late October 2025 following Hershey's strong third-quarter performance-marked by $1.30 in EPS and $3.18 billion in revenue-it later revised the target back to $185 due to concerns over cocoa costs and tariffs according to market analysis. As of December 6, 2025, Stifel's average one-year price target stands at $192.26, implying a 5.88% potential upside from the stock's closing price. This cautious optimism aligns with the broader analyst consensus, which also recommends a "Hold" with an average price target of $190.67 as reported by financial analysts.

Strategic Cost Management: Hedging, Pricing, and Productivity

Hershey's approach to cost management in 2025 has centered on three pillars: commodity hedging, price adjustments, and operational efficiency. To counter cocoa price volatility, the company hedges over 40% of its annual cocoa requirements, a critical buffer against swings in global commodity markets. Additionally, Hershey has announced a 3-4% price increase across its portfolio and aims to achieve $300 million in productivity savings by 2026 through automation and supply chain optimization as part of its strategic plan.

However, these efforts have faced headwinds. In Q2 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 30.5%, a 970-basis-point decline compared to 38.1% in Q2 2024. Adjusted gross margin also fell to 38.1%, down 510 basis points year-over-year, driven by elevated commodity and manufacturing costs as detailed in financial reports. While Stifel acknowledges these pressures, it notes that Hershey's cost management initiatives are designed to offset margin contraction over time according to research findings.

Cocoa Price Volatility and Tariff Mitigation: A Dual Challenge

. Cocoa prices have surged to historically high levels, threatening to erode Hershey's gross profit margins by 650–700 basis points in 2025. Tariffs on cocoa imports from Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Ecuador have compounded the issue, adding $100 million in quarterly costs and contributing to a 700-basis-point margin decline in Q2 2025. The company now projects tariff-related expenses of $170–180 million for the year, prompting a downward revision of its adjusted EPS guidance.

To mitigate these risks, Hershey has adopted a multi-pronged strategy. It is lobbying for tariff exemptions on cocoa imports, given the U.S. lacks domestic production capabilities. Simultaneously, the company is shifting focus to lower-cocoa segments, such as sweets and salty snacks (e.g., SkinnyPop, Pirate's Booty, and Jolly Rancher), which are less exposed to cocoa price swings as noted in market analysis. Product resizing and price pack architecture adjustments further help maintain value perception in cost-sensitive retail environments according to industry reports.

Balancing Risks and Resilience: Near-Term Investment Implications

The interplay between Hershey's strategic initiatives and external pressures paints a nuanced picture. While Stifel's "Hold" rating underscores near-term uncertainties, the company's hedging practices, pricing discipline, and product diversification efforts provide a foundation for margin sustainability. The $192.26 average price target from Stifel implies a modest but achievable upside, contingent on the effectiveness of cost management and the resolution of tariff-related challenges.

However, investors must remain vigilant. Cocoa prices and geopolitical trade policies remain volatile, and Hershey's ability to absorb costs without sacrificing market share will be critical. The company's pivot to non-cocoa products and operational efficiency gains could serve as long-term differentiators, but their near-term impact on profitability is yet to be fully realized.

Conclusion

Hershey's resilience in a high-cost environment hinges on its capacity to balance proactive cost management with strategic agility. While Stifel Nicolaus's cautious stance reflects ongoing risks, the company's hedging, pricing, and diversification strategies offer a path to margin stabilization. For investors, the stock's near-term potential appears tied to the resolution of cocoa price volatility and tariff disputes, with Stifel's $192.26 price target serving as a key benchmark. In a market characterized by uncertainty, Hershey's ability to adapt may yet prove its mettle.