Why Heritage Insurance (HRTG) Could Beat Earnings Estimates Again

Looking for a stock that has been consistently beating earnings estimates and might be well positioned to keep the streak alive in its next quarterly report? Heritage Insurance (HRTG), which belongs to the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, could be a great candidate to consider.

This property and casualty insurance holding company has seen a nice streak of beating earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The average surprise for the last two quarters was 129.02%.

For the last reported quarter, Heritage Insurance came out with earnings of $1.63 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.53 per share, representing a surprise of 207.55%. For the previous quarter, the company was expected to post earnings of $1.03 per share and it actually produced earnings of $1.55 per share, delivering a surprise of 50.49%.

Price and EPS Surprise

With this earnings history in mind, recent estimates have been moving higher for Heritage Insurance. In fact, the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for the company is positive, which is a great sign of an earnings beat, especially when you combine this metric with its nice Zacks Rank.

Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Heritage Insurance currently has an Earnings ESP of +24.61%, which suggests that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This positive Earnings ESP when combined with the stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) indicates that another beat is possibly around the corner. We expect the company's next earnings report to be released on March 9, 2026.

With the Earnings ESP metric, it's important to note that a negative value reduces its predictive power; however, a negative Earnings ESP does not indicate an earnings miss.

Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, though this is not the only reason why their shares gain. Additionally, some stocks may remain stable even if they end up missing the consensus estimate.

Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

Just Released: Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2026

Hurry – you can still get in early on our 10 top tickers for 2026. Handpicked by Zacks Director of Research Sheraz Mian, this portfolio has been stunningly and consistently successful.

From inception in 2012 through November, 2025, the Zacks Top 10 Stocks gained +2,530.8%, more than QUADRUPLING the S&P 500’s +570.3%.

Sheraz has combed through 4,400 companies covered by the Zacks Rank and handpicked the best 10 to buy and hold in 2026. You can still be among the first to see these just-released stocks with enormous potential.

See New Top 10 Stocks >>

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research