HEMITRY Market Overview – October 4, 2025

• Price surged to a 24-hour high of 4.00 before consolidating near 3.85.
• Volatility expanded mid-session, followed by a contraction in the afternoon.
• Strong volume-driven rally in early evening ET, with mixed close in late session.
• RSI and MACD showed mixed momentum, with no clear overbought or oversold signals.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during breakout and have begun to contract again toward the end.

Opening Snapshot

The HEMI/Turkish Lira pair (HEMITRY) opened at 3.71 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and reached an intraday high of 4.00 before closing at 3.85 at 12:00 ET on October 4. The 24-hour volume was 53,816,284.6 and turnover amounted to 53,816,284.6 Turkish Lira.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a strong bullish breakout above the 3.82 resistance level around 10:45 PM ET, followed by a consolidation phase around 3.85–3.88. Key support appears to be holding around the 3.76–3.78 range, with a bearish pinbar at 08:30 AM ET indicating possible short-term hesitation. A bullish engulfing pattern formed during the mid-session rally, signaling renewed buying interest.

15-Minute Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed above the price in late evening, confirming the upward bias. The 50-period MA acted as a dynamic support line during the pullbacks, while the 20-period MA remained above 3.80, reinforcing bullish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line during the mid-session rally, indicating a positive shift in momentum. However, the histogram showed a slight pullback in the afternoon, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. RSI moved into overbought territory at one point (around 3.97) but quickly retreated to neutral levels, indicating strong but not excessive buying pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Price moved outside the upper Bollinger Band during the breakout and briefly stayed above before retracing back into the band. The band width showed a sharp expansion during the rally and has started to contract, signaling a potential period of reduced volatility and possible consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakout phase, especially around 10:45 PM ET, with one candle showing over 1.6 million volume. This suggests strong institutional or retail buying pressure at that level. Turnover also spiked during the same period, aligning with the price move. However, a divergence appeared in the late afternoon, where volume declined while price remained within a tight range, hinting at possible exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels were active during the pullbacks, especially the 61.8% retracement around 3.80–3.82, which acted as a strong support during the late session. The 38.2% retracement at 3.86–3.88 offered resistance in the early morning, reinforcing the idea that the 3.80–3.90 range is a key battleground for short-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtesting strategy involves entering long on a close above the 61.8% Fibonacci level (3.80–3.82) with a stop-loss just below the 37.2% retracement (3.76–3.78). This approach would have captured the mid-session rally and allowed for a measured exit at the 78.6% level or beyond if the trend continued. Given the recent volume confirmation and MACD divergence, this setup appears favorable for a short-to-medium-term trade, especially if Bollinger Bands continue to contract and then expand again.