HEMITRY Market Overview

Summary
• HEMI/Turkish Lira traded lower over 24 hours with bearish momentum.
• Volume spiked mid-session, but price failed to confirm higher lows.
• RSI suggests overbought conditions were reversed into oversold territory.

Opening Narrative

On November 14, 2025, HEMI/Turkish Lira (HEMITRY) opened at 1.28, traded as high as 1.28 and as low as 1.13 before closing at 1.13 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 43,486,533.9, with a notional turnover reflecting moderate activity and a bearish bias in price action.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period formed a bearish flag pattern after a sharp decline from 1.28 to 1.13. Key support levels emerged at 1.22 and 1.16, with the latter showing repeated rejection. A doji candle at 00:45 ET marked indecision near 1.22, while a long lower shadow at 02:45 ET confirmed bearish continuation.

Moving Averages

A 20-period and 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart showed a consistent bearish crossover, reinforcing the downward trend. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) remain untested due to the limited time window, but the 50-period SMA at 1.20 suggests a potential floor for short-term bounces.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained negative throughout the 24-hour window, with bearish divergence evident after 03:00 ET. RSI declined from overbought (65) in early hours to oversold (34) by 06:00 ET. This reversal may indicate exhaustion in the bearish move and potential for a short-term rebound, though a break below 1.13 could extend the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the early bearish leg, with price dropping below the lower band at 02:45 ET. This move could signal oversold conditions, but price failed to rally strongly post-break, indicating weak demand. A contraction in band width at 08:00 ET may suggest a consolidation phase before the next directional move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish phase between 19:00 and 04:00 ET, particularly near 1.22 and 1.16, confirming bearish control. Turnover remained aligned with volume, showing no divergence. A drop in volume after 08:00 ET suggests reduced conviction in the current trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 1.28 to 1.13 swing, the 38.2% retracement level at 1.22 acted as resistance, while the 61.8% level at 1.16 provided support. Price held above 1.16 into the close, suggesting buyers may defend this area. A break below 1.13 would target 1.10, the next Fibonacci extension level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest could utilize RSI-14 crossing above 30 as an entry signal, paired with a 50-period MA crossover as an exit strategy. Given the 24-hour action, HEMI/Turkish Lira would have triggered an oversold entry near 1.13 and a potential exit if the 50-period MA crossed the price. Risk controls like a stop-loss at 1.10 or a 2-day holding period could refine the strategy.