HEMI -1432.23% in 1 Month Amid Sharp Decline in On-Chain Activity and Market Confidence

HEMI experienced a drastic price movement over the past month, plummeting by 1432.23% to reach $3.48 as of October 10, 2025. This decline followed a similarly extreme 1230.37% drop over the past seven days and a 4153.58% drop over the last 365 days. The sharp correction has raised questions about the underlying fundamentals and market dynamics influencing the asset’s performance.

The recent downturn appears to be driven by a broader loss of investor confidence and a significant reduction in on-chain activity. Analytics show a marked decline in transaction volume, wallet activity, and active addresses, suggesting a lack of demand and participation from both retail and institutional investors. Analysts project that the current price trajectory is likely to continue until there is a noticeable uptick in fundamental usage or renewed interest from the market.

From a technical perspective, HEMI has broken below key support levels that had previously provided some stability to the price. The asset is now trading in a bearish channel, with indicators such as the RSI and MACD showing extended oversold conditions and negative momentum. This suggests that the downward pressure on the price is not yet exhausted and may persist unless there is a substantial buying interest to reverse the trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy was developed to evaluate potential trade setups based on the recent technical breakdown. The hypothesis is built around the use of moving averages and oscillator-based signals to identify possible reversal points or continuation trends. Specifically, a 200-period moving average was used as a dynamic trend filter, while RSI divergence and MACD crossovers were used to pinpoint potential entry and exit points.

The strategy assumes that in a strongly bearish environment, trend-following signals—such as a close below the 200-period MA—can be used to reinforce the downtrend, while RSI divergence may indicate temporary oversold conditions that could present limited short-covering opportunities. The backtest aims to simulate how a trader might manage risk by using these signals to set stop-loss levels and target short-term price corrections within the larger downtrend.