Gestionar la exposición al yen en 2026: Cómo enfrentarse a los cambios en las políticas del Banco de Japón y a los desequilibrios entre el dólar y el yen

The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) gradual normalization of monetary policy in 2026 has created a complex landscape for international investors seeking exposure to Japanese equities. With the yen remaining under pressure despite recent rate hikes, currency risk management has become a critical component of investment strategy. This article examines the interplay between BoJ policy, dollar-yen imbalances, and hedging strategies, offering actionable insights for investors navigating this dynamic environment.

BoJ's Cautious Tightening and Yen Weakness

The BoJ's 2026 policy trajectory is characterized by a deliberate, measured approach to tightening. After raising rates to 0.75% in December 2025-the highest in 30 years-the central bank has signaled further increases, with a terminal rate of 1.5% expected by mid-2027. However, this path remains constrained by Japan's high public debt levels and the lingering perception of dovishness compared to global peers. As a result, the yen has struggled to gain traction, with USD/JPY rates hovering near 156–157 despite the BoJ's efforts.

Governor Kazuo Ueda has emphasized the need to align monetary policy with the 2% inflation target, but the BoJ's cautious communication has limited market expectations for aggressive action. This has left the yen vulnerable to persistent interest rate differentials, particularly as the U.S. Federal Reserve is projected to cut rates in 2026, narrowing the gap with Japan. The BoJ's delayed normalization has also kept real interest rates deeply negative, exacerbating yen depreciation and hedging costs for foreign investors.

Strategic Hedging in a Volatile Environment

For international investors, the yen's weakness presents both opportunities and risks. Unhedged Japanese equity ETFs, such as the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) and the JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan ETF (BBJP), benefit from yen appreciation, as stronger currency converts to higher dollar returns. Conversely, hedged alternatives like the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (DXJ) neutralize currency fluctuations, offering pure exposure to corporate performance. The choice between these options hinges on investors' outlook for the yen and tolerance for volatility.

Dynamic hedging strategies are gaining traction as a middle ground. Collar options allow investors to cap downside risk while retaining upside potential, balancing cost efficiency with risk mitigation. These approaches are particularly relevant in 2026, as the BoJ's policy normalization and potential fiscal interventions introduce uncertainty into the yen's trajectory. For example, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama's recent comments about a "free hand" to address excessive yen movements have heightened speculation about market interventions if USD/JPY approaches 160.

Dollar-Yen Imbalances and Hedging Costs

The dollar's overvaluation against the yen- estimated at 40% based on purchasing power parity-has further complicated hedging decisions. While the Fed's dovish pivot is expected to weaken the dollar, Japan's gradual tightening may provide a floor for the yen, potentially stabilizing USD/JPY around 140–145 by year-end 2026. This narrowing of the interest rate differential could reduce hedging costs, which have averaged 2.6% for euro and Japanese investors over the past decade.

However, structural risks persist. The yen carry trade, where investors borrow yen at low rates to fund higher-yielding assets, remains a wildcard. A sudden unwind-triggered by aggressive BoJ hikes or deeper Fed cuts-could create disorderly volatility, amplifying the need for flexible hedging strategies. Additionally, the BoJ's decision to divest its ¥83 trillion ETF portfolio in 2026 has introduced psychological uncertainty, as the end of the "BoJ put" may heighten market sensitivity to policy shifts.

Conclusion: Balancing Policy, Currency, and Strategy

Investors in Japanese equities must adopt a nuanced approach to currency risk in 2026. The BoJ's cautious tightening, while supportive of long-term inflation goals, has left the yen vulnerable to external pressures. Meanwhile, dollar-yen imbalances and potential interventions create a volatile backdrop. Hedging strategies must evolve accordingly, blending dynamic overlays with scenario-based planning to navigate divergent outcomes.

For those betting on a stronger yen, unhedged ETFs offer compelling returns. For others prioritizing stability, hedged alternatives and collar options provide a buffer against yen depreciation. Ultimately, success in this environment will depend on aligning hedging choices with macroeconomic expectations and policy trajectories-a challenge that demands both agility and foresight.