Hedera/Tether Market Overview: Bullish Momentum Amid Expanding Volatility

• HBARUSDT opened at $0.21092 and closed at $0.21541, rising 2.13% over 24 hours.
• Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern at 19:30 ET, followed by a recovery phase on strong volume.
• A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.2108 acted as strong support before late-day breakouts.
• Volatility expanded midday, with Bollinger Bands widening as price pushed higher.
• RSI reached overbought territory by late afternoon, indicating potential near-term profit-taking.

Price Movement and Daily Context

On October 10, 2025, the Hedera/Tether (HBARUSDT) pair opened at $0.21092 and closed at $0.21541 at 12:00 ET. The price reached an intraday high of $0.21654 and a low of $0.20441, reflecting a volatile 24-hour window. Total trading volume was approximately 117,143,394, with a notional turnover of $24,896,616, underscoring strong participation during the price rebound.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure revealed a critical bullish engulfing pattern at 19:30 ET, signaling a shift in momentum following a sharp bearish correction. Key support was noted at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.2108, which held on increased volume. A potential resistance zone emerged near $0.2165, where a bearish pinbar formed on heavy volume. A doji at 03:30 ET highlighted indecision before the break higher.

Moving Averages and Trend Context

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed above price around 16:00 ET, confirming the resumption of a bullish trend. While the 50-period MA held above the 100-period MA, the 200-period MA remained below, suggesting a broader uptrend remains intact. Price action above these lines indicates a continuation scenario for now.

Momentum Indicators and Volatility

The MACD crossed above the signal line at 17:00 ET, reinforcing bullish momentum. RSI climbed above 65 by 11:00 AM, indicating overbought conditions that may trigger profit-taking. Bollinger Bands expanded during the price rise, reflecting heightened volatility, and price remained above the 1-standard deviation line into the close, suggesting strength in the move.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked significantly during the 18:00–19:30 ET window as price rebounded from key support. Notional turnover confirmed this price action, showing a sharp rise in liquidity during the bullish phase. Divergence between volume and price was not observed, supporting the strength of the upward move.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Price pulled back to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.2108, then broke out decisively. The 38.2% retracement at $0.2138 became a minor resistance, but the overall trend suggested a test of $0.2165 as the next target. On the daily chart, the 78.6% retracement of the recent bearish leg may offer a potential long-term target if bullish momentum holds.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy that entered long at the close of the bullish engulfing pattern at 19:30 ET and exited at the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $0.2138 would have captured approximately 1.5% of the 24-hour move. If extended to the 78.6% level at $0.2165, the target would have been achieved within 12 hours, confirming the strength of the Fibonacci framework. Integrating volume confirmation and RSI divergence could enhance signal accuracy, particularly in filtering out false breakouts during volatile sessions. This suggests a viable framework for short-term swing traders focusing on pattern and retracement-based entries.