Hecla Mining (HL) cae un 11.5%: ¿Qué está detrás de esta caída repentina?

Summary
• Hecla Mining (HL) tumbles to $19.31, a 5.6% drop from its $22.27 close
• Silver prices and index reweighting pressures dominate market sentiment
• Options chain shows extreme implied volatility (144%+), signaling heightened uncertainty
• Coeur Mining (CDE), sector leader, also declines 2.93%, amplifying sector concerns

Hecla Mining’s sharp intraday selloff reflects broader anxiety in the precious metals sector as silver prices correct and index rebalancing triggers forced selling. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $4.46, investors are scrambling to assess whether this is a cyclical pullback or a structural shift. The options market’s explosive volatility and technical indicators suggest a critical juncture for HL.

Silver Price Corrections and Index Rebalancing Trigger Flight to Safety
Hecla Mining’s 5.6% decline is directly tied to silver’s recent volatility and the looming impact of commodity index rebalancing. Silver prices, which surged to record highs in late 2025, have corrected sharply as passive funds unwind overexposure ahead of index reweighting. This forced selling has amplified downside pressure on leveraged miners like HL, which derives most of its revenue from silver. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance have created a fragile environment for non-yielding assets like precious metals. The stock’s collapse to $19.31—a 46% discount to its DCF intrinsic value—suggests panic selling is outpacing fundamentals.

Precious Metals Sector Under Pressure as Coeur Mining Trails HL’s Slide
The precious metals sector is broadly underperforming, with Coeur Mining (CDE) down 2.93% despite being a sector leader. This divergence highlights the sector’s fragility, as index-driven selling and macroeconomic headwinds disproportionately impact smaller, leveraged producers. While CDE’s -2.93% decline is less severe than HL’s -5.59%, both stocks face similar risks from silver’s volatility and the lack of liquidity in the physical silver market. The sector’s average P/E of 26.3x contrasts sharply with HL’s 62.15x, underscoring the market’s loss of confidence in high-multiple miners.

Options and ETFs for Navigating HL’s Volatility: A Tactical Playbook
• RSI: 69.33 (overbought but bearish divergence)
• MACD: 1.15 (bullish) vs. Signal Line 1.17 (bearish), Histogram -0.02 (bearish crossover)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper 21.91, Middle 19.19, Lower 16.47 (price near lower band)
• 200D MA: 9.68 (far below current price)

HL’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias despite long-term bullish fundamentals. Key support levels at $16.47 (lower Bollinger) and $13.5 (put strike with 4239% leverage) are critical. The options chain reveals two high-conviction plays:

• HL20260116P19: Put option with 95.76% IV, 62.34% leverage, delta -0.226, theta -0.0308, gamma 0.0859, turnover 42,251. This contract offers asymmetric upside in a 5% downside scenario, with a projected payoff of $0.50 per share. Its moderate delta and high gamma make it ideal for a sharp move.
• HL20260116P21: Put option with 85.26% IV, 19.62% leverage, delta -0.443, theta -0.0159, gamma 0.132, turnover 572,199. High liquidity and strong gamma position this as a core short-term bet. A 5% drop would yield a $1.05 payoff, aligning with the stock’s technical breakdown.

Action: Aggressive bears should prioritize HL20260116P19 for a 5% downside play, while HL20260116P21 offers a safer, high-liquidity hedge. Watch for a breakdown below $19.50 to confirm the bearish case.

Backtest Hecla Mining Stock Performance
The backtest of HL's performance after a -6% intraday plunge from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 51.57%, the 10-Day win rate is 53.46%, and the 30-Day win rate is 59.75%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 11.59% over 30 days, suggesting that HL has the potential for recovery and even gains after a significant downturn.

Critical Crossroads for Hecla Mining: Act Now or Miss the Window
Hecla Mining stands at a pivotal moment as silver volatility and index-driven selling collide. While the stock’s DCF model suggests a 46% undervaluation, the current technical and options data favor a near-term bearish outlook. Investors must act decisively: short-term traders should target the $16.47 support level with the HL20260116P19 put, while longer-term bulls should wait for a rebound above $21.19 (52-week high) to re-enter. Watch Coeur Mining (CDE) at -2.93% for sector confirmation—a further selloff would validate the bearish thesis. The next 48 hours will test HL’s resilience in this high-stakes environment.