HBAR's Potential Breakout Amid Technical and Elliott Wave Bullish Signals
HBAR, the native token of HederaHBAR-- Hashgraph, has emerged as a focal point for traders and investors in late 2025, driven by a confluence of technical and Elliott Wave bullish signals. As the cryptocurrency navigates a critical juncture in its price trajectory, the interplay of chart patterns, Fibonacci retracements, and derivatives market dynamics suggests a high probability of a breakout. This analysis delves into the technical underpinnings of HBAR's potential surge, while also addressing the risks that could temper its ascent.
Technical Setup: Bullish Flags and Fibonacci Retracements
HBAR's daily chart has formed a bullish flag pattern, a classic continuation structure that signals exhaustion of a prior downtrend and the likelihood of a resumption of upward momentum [1]. The pattern is characterized by a sharp initial surge followed by a consolidation phase within a descending channel. According to a report by The Market Periodical, the price has retraced approximately 61.8% of the initial move, aligning with the Fibonacci retracement level that often acts as a key pivot point in Elliott Wave analysis [2]. This retracement suggests that HBARHBAR-- is in the second phase of a larger wave structure, with the third and most powerful phase potentially imminent [3].
The immediate support level at $0.21 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement) has held firm, preventing a deeper pullback and reinforcing the flag's validity [4]. A breakout above the flag's upper boundary—projected to occur near $0.25–$0.26—could trigger a move toward $0.38–$0.40, a range last seen in January 2025 [5]. This target is further supported by the neckline of a double-bottom pattern at $0.1230, which HBAR has retested and held above, indicating strong buyer interest [6].
Elliott Wave Dynamics: Third Wave as Catalyst
Elliott Wave analysis reinforces the technical case for HBAR. The token is currently in wave (2) of a larger impulsive structure, with wave (1) having driven the price from a 2023 low of $0.10 to a peak of $0.38 in December 2024 [7]. Wave (2) has retraced to $0.21–$0.23, and a successful rebound would position HBAR for wave (3), historically the most bullish and extended phase of any Elliott Wave cycle [8].
Analysts at Bankless Times project that wave (3) could propel HBAR to $0.40–$0.43, with a longer-term target of $0.65–$1.00 if the broader wave (5) unfolds as expected [9]. This projection is bolstered by the Ichimoku cloud and 200-day EMA, both of which have provided dynamic support since July 2025 [10]. A breakdown below $0.21, however, would invalidate the bullish wave count and signal a potential retest of the 52-week low at $0.13 [11].
Derivatives Market: Reduced Pressure, Growing Confidence
Derivatives data adds another layer of confirmation to HBAR's bullish setup. The funding rate for perpetual futures contracts has turned positive, indicating that longs are dominating the market and pushing prices higher [12]. Additionally, liquidations have declined sharply in September 2025, reducing the risk of forced selling that could derail a breakout [13].
The MACD Golden Cross formation—a bullish momentum signal—has also been observed, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line as HBAR consolidates near $0.22 [14]. Meanwhile, the RSI has turned upward from oversold territory, suggesting that the asset is regaining strength after a prolonged correction [15].
Catalysts and Risks: ETF Approval vs. Ecosystem Weakness
The most significant near-term catalyst for HBAR is the pending approval of the Canary HBAR ETF, expected in October 2025. If successful, this would provide U.S. investors with a regulated vehicle to access the token, potentially attracting institutional capital and driving liquidity [16]. However, the token's fundamentals remain mixed. While Hedera's partnerships with Wyoming's stablecoin initiative and Australia's CBDC project highlight its utility, the total value locked (TVL) in its DeFi ecosystem has declined from $400 million to $220 million, raising concerns about long-term adoption [17].
A bearish breakdown below $0.21 would not only invalidate the Elliott Wave structure but also expose HBAR to a test of the 200-day SMA at $0.19 and the psychological level of $0.15 [18]. Traders should also monitor Bitcoin's performance, as HBAR's price historically correlates with the leading cryptocurrency's broader trend [19].
Conclusion: A High-Reward, High-Volatility Play
HBAR's technical and Elliott Wave setup presents a compelling case for a breakout, with multiple indicators converging on a $0.40–$0.58 price target by late 2025. The combination of a bullish flag, Fibonacci retracements, and derivatives market signals creates a robust framework for a short-to-medium-term rally. However, investors must remain cautious of the token's weak TVL, regulatory uncertainties, and the risk of a breakdown below critical support levels. For those willing to tolerate volatility, HBAR offers a high-reward opportunity, particularly if the ETF approval materializes as anticipated.
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