HBAR's Critical Crossroads: Can It Reclaim $0.175 to Avert a Deep Correction?

HBAR, the native token of the Hedera Hashgraph network, finds itself at a pivotal juncture as it hovers near $0.18. The token's ability to reclaim and sustain the $0.175 level has become a focal point for traders and analysts, with implications for both short-term volatility and long-term trajectory. This analysis delves into the technical and on-chain dynamics shaping HBAR's near-term outlook, emphasizing the criticality of the $0.175 threshold and the broader market structure.

Key Technical Levels: A Battle for $0.175

HBAR's price action has been tightly contested around the $0.175 level, a zone that has historically acted as both a support and a catalyst for bullish reversals. According to a report by BraveNewCoin, maintaining this level is essential to prevent further retracement and could signal the start of a rebound toward $0.25–$0.30 in the short term. This level also aligns with the upper boundary of a descending triangle pattern, a continuation pattern that if broken could validate an upward trend.

However, the bearish case remains potent. A drop below $0.16-identified as a critical support zone-could expose HBAR to deeper losses, potentially testing $0.12–$0.13. Analysts from Yahoo Finance note that HBAR has repeatedly failed to break above $0.20, consolidating within a $0.175–$0.194 range, which underscores the token's struggle to gain directional clarity.

On-Chain Metrics: Mixed Signals Amid Consolidation

Recent on-chain data reveals a nuanced picture. While HBAR's transfer volume has shown signs of growing engagement from new participants and mid-sized holders, the trading volume around $0.175 has been moderate, clocking in at approximately $482.89 million in the past week. This suggests limited conviction from buyers during critical tests of the $0.175 level.

The token's inability to break above $0.20 has led to a range-bound consolidation, with traders split between bullish and bearish narratives. BraveNewCoin highlights that a sustained move above $0.175 could trigger a surge toward $0.35–$0.50, contingent on volume and institutional participation. Conversely, a breakdown below $0.162 is seen as a high-probability risk if short-term bearish momentum intensifies.

Short-Term Reversal Potential: Bear Traps and Short Squeeze Risks

HBAR's technical setup has created a high-stakes environment for traders. A recent breakdown below a head-and-shoulders pattern's neckline signaled a bearish continuation, but derivatives data and momentum indicators suggest a potential short squeeze. MEXC analysts note that approximately 75% of leveraged positions are currently short, increasing the likelihood of rapid upward moves as these positions liquidate.

A bullish RSI divergence has emerged, indicating weakening downside momentum and raising the probability of a short-term bounce. On the one-hour chart, an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern with a neckline around $0.169–$0.170 has formed. A break above this level could confirm a technical breakout, pushing the price toward $0.181–$0.183.

Meanwhile, stablecoin inflows on the Hedera network have surged to $172 million, a sign of growing institutional adoption and liquidity expansion that could underpin a future upward move. However, liquidity alarms and a breakdown below $0.145 in late-session trading highlight the fragility of HBAR's near-term structure.

The Path Forward: A High-Stakes Technical Inflection Point

HBAR's immediate future hinges on its ability to reclaim and hold $0.175. A successful defense of this level could catalyze a short squeeze and validate the descending triangle's bullish potential, with price targets extending into the $0.35–$0.50 range. Conversely, a failure to hold above $0.16 would likely accelerate a correction toward $0.12–$0.13, exposing the token to deeper bearish pressure.

Longer-term projections remain optimistic under a bullish scenario, with some models forecasting HBAR reaching $0.75 by year-end 2025 and surpassing $1.00 by 2026. However, these outcomes depend on sustained institutional participation and broader market conditions.

Conclusion

HBAR stands at a critical crossroads, with the $0.175 level serving as both a technical fulcrum and a psychological battleground. While on-chain metrics and momentum indicators hint at a potential short-term reversal, the token's consolidation within a narrow range underscores the market's uncertainty. Traders must closely monitor volume dynamics and key support/resistance levels to navigate this high-stakes inflection point. For now, the fate of HBAR's near-term trajectory rests on whether bulls can reclaim $0.175-or whether bears will force a deeper correction.