Hayes' TGA Theory vs. Skeptics: Will Liquidity Spark a Crypto Rally?
The U.S. Treasury’s General Account (TGA) has surged past $850 billion, a threshold that BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes identifies as a pivotal liquidity turning point for crypto markets. Hayes argues that once the Treasury completes its cash accumulation phase, liquidity will re-enter risk assets, potentially triggering a fresh crypto rally. As of September 18, 2025, the TGA balance stood at $816.4 billion, having previously crossed the $850 billion mark, signaling a critical juncture for capital reallocation. Hayes emphasizes that the TGA’s buildup has historically drained liquidity from markets, and its stabilization could reverse this trend, channeling funds into BitcoinBTC-- and altcoins [1].
The TGA, the Treasury’s primary operating account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, holds proceeds from bond sales and tax revenues. Its size directly influences financial market liquidity. Hayes posits that the Treasury’s aggressive cash accumulation since mid-2025—driven by the July 2025 Senate passage of the “Big Beautiful Bill,” which raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion—has temporarily starved private markets of capital. Once the TGA stabilizes at its target level, Hayes predicts a reversal, with liquidity flowing back into crypto and other risk assets [1].
Market dynamics are further shaped by the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle, which has already seen a 25-basis-point reduction in 2025. While Bitcoin dipped below $115,000 following the cut—a classic “sell-the-news” reaction—analysts anticipate further easing. Over 91.9% of traders expect a 50-basis-point cut at the October FOMC meeting, per CME GroupCME-- data. Hayes’s optimism contrasts with skepticism from some analysts, including Bitwise’s André Dragosch, who dismisses the TGA-liquidity-Bitcoin correlation as “useless” [2].
Hayes’s thesis hinges on historical patterns where government liquidity injections catalyze risk-asset rallies. He likens the TGA’s role to a “pump” temporarily siphoning capital before reinjecting it, a mechanism he believes will drive crypto into a “continuous rise” mode. The TGA’s current trajectory, nearing Janet Yellen’s $850 billion target, aligns with this framework. However, critics highlight that crypto dynamics are influenced by broader factors, including regulatory clarity and institutional adoption, notNOT-- solely Treasury or Fed actions [3].
The potential crypto surge is already attracting institutional interest. Wall Street analysts note quiet capital inflows into crypto, supported by emerging regulatory frameworks that reduce compliance hurdles. While Bitcoin and EthereumETH-- historically lead such rallies, altcoins are positioned to follow, capitalizing on 24/7 trading and leverage opportunities. Hayes’s Maelstrom Fund, heavily invested in Ethereum, anticipates a “bullish recovery,” citing growing traditional finance adoption of the asset [3].
Despite these bullish signals, challenges persist. Recent volatility, such as Bitcoin’s post-rate-cut dip, underscores market sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts. Additionally, the TGA’s refill nearing completion does not guarantee immediate crypto gains, as investor psychology and geopolitical risks—such as trade tensions—remain variables. Hayes’s forecast, while compelling, faces pushback from those who argue liquidity’s impact on crypto is overstated [2].
As the TGA approaches its target, crypto markets brace for potential liquidity-driven upswings. The interplay between Treasury dynamics, Fed policy, and market sentiment will likely determine the next phase of crypto’s trajectory. For now, Hayes’s prediction of a post-850B liquidity surge remains a focal point for investors and analysts alike.
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