Harvesting Profits in Agri-Hospitality: Navigating Trump's Labor Policy Crossroads

The agricultural and hospitality sectors face a precarious balancing act: relying heavily on immigrant labor while grappling with the Trump administration's aggressive immigration enforcement. This creates both risks and opportunities for investors. While immigration raids and visa restrictions threaten labor stability, proposed exemptions and temporary work passes could stabilize costs, boost profitability, and unlock value in farmland REITs, agribusiness stocks, and travel equities. Here's how to position your portfolio for this shifting landscape.

The Labor Dependency Dilemma

Agriculture remains critically dependent on immigrant labor, with 42% of crop farmworkers lacking legal status as of 2025. The H-2A visa program, which covers seasonal workers, only accounts for 10% of the labor force, leaving year-round sectors like dairies and meatpacking plants at risk of shortages. Similarly, the hospitality industry relies on 10% of unauthorized workers for roles in hotels, restaurants, and groundskeeping.

text2img>A drone view of a sprawling farmland operation with workers tending crops, symbolizing the reliance on labor stability for agricultural productivity

Policy Shifts: Opportunities in Agriculture

Trump's proposed exemptions and temporary work permits for long-term farmworkers could alleviate labor bottlenecks, reducing costs and boosting yields. Here's how to capitalize:

1. Farmland REITs:
2. Farmland AgREIT (FARM): Farmland values are tied to production efficiency. If labor stability improves crop yields and demand, farmland REITs could see rising valuations.
5. Historical backtesting reveals a stark caution: from 2020 to 2025, a buy-and-hold strategy after a YoY NAV increase underperformed, averaging -86.34% over 90 days. The maximum drawdown reached -90.12%, suggesting volatility even during positive NAV trends. This underscores the risk of relying solely on NAV growth as a buying signal.

6. Risk: ICE raids disrupting harvest seasons could spike operational costs.

7. Agribusiness Stocks:

8. Deere (DE): Farmers upgrading machinery to offset labor shortages may boost equipment sales.
10. Monsanto (MON): Higher crop yields via genetically modified seeds could gain traction if farms expand output with stable labor.

Hospitality's Turnaround Potential

The hospitality sector stands to benefit from relaxed labor enforcement. H-2B visa expansions for FY2025 (64,716 additional visas) could ease shortages in landscaping and hotel staffing.

text2img>A bustling resort property with well-staffed amenities, illustrating the hospitality sector's reliance on labor availability for operations

• Travel & Lodging Plays:
• Marriott (MAR) and Hilton (HLT): Labor stability could reduce staffing costs and improve occupancy rates as consumer confidence recovers.