Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) Market Overview: 24-Hour Technical Summary

• ONEUSDT fell sharply after 19:30 ET amid a massive divergence in volume and price
• 0.0061–0.0063 formed as key support/resistance cluster for the final 6 hours
• Momentum improved with rising RSI and tightening Bollinger Bands post-03:00 ET
• 61.8% Fibonacci retracement aligned with 0.00627 and was tested twice in final 4 hours
• Final 15-minute candle closed at 0.00637, 7.5% above the 24-hour low of 0.00631

Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) opened at 0.00898 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.00637 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.00907 and a low of 0.00182. Total 24-hour volume was 1067,845,587.89 with a notional turnover of $54,578,956. The pair exhibited a strong bearish bias early on, followed by a period of consolidation and a late rebound.

Structure and formation analysis revealed key support at 0.0061–0.0063 and resistance at 0.0065–0.0067. A large bearish engulfing pattern emerged after 19:30 ET, confirming the breakdown below the 0.00880 level. A series of doji formed in the 0.0062–0.0063 range after 03:00 ET, suggesting indecision and potential reversal. Bollinger Bands showed significant expansion during the early selloff but contracted after 04:00 ET, pointing to lower volatility and a potential consolidation phase.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart confirmed the bearish momentum earlier in the session, with price below both. After 05:00 ET, price began to approach and retest the 50-period moving average, which acted as a dynamic support. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sat at 0.00632 and the 200-period MA at 0.00645. The price closed just below the 50-period MA, suggesting a potential near-term retest or a continuation.

MACD and RSI indicators confirmed bearish momentum in the early part of the session, with RSI hitting 18. However, after 03:00 ET, RSI began to move upward, suggesting improving momentum. MACD crossed back into positive territory after 07:00 ET, aligning with the rebound in price. Bollinger Bands showed a significant contraction after 03:00 ET, which was followed by a breakout to the upside. The 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.00627 was tested twice in the last 4 hours and held firm, suggesting its importance as a potential support level.

The notional turnover reached a high of $33,937,766 at 21:30 ET but declined significantly after the 03:00 ET rebound. Price and volume diverged sharply in the selloff, with volume dropping as price continued lower. However, in the rebound phase after 03:00 ET, volume increased with price, confirming the move. Notional turnover reached $2,918,857 at 03:30 ET as price retested the 0.00627 level, indicating strong participation at key support.

Backtest Hypothesis