Harmony/Tether Market Overview

• ONEUSDT fell sharply from 0.0104 to 0.0092, indicating bearish momentum.
• Volume spiked at 0.00963 before stabilizing in a range.
• RSI reached oversold levels around 0.00919 but failed to show a rebound.
• Bollinger Bands contracted near 0.00924–0.00931, signaling low volatility.
• No bullish confirmation patterns emerged, such as a hammer or bullish engulfing.

Harmony/Tether (ONEUSDT) opened at 0.01036 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.00923 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was 0.01044, and the low was 0.00869. The total traded volume was approximately 290,988,000 ONE, and the total notional turnover was around $2,701,912.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLC data shows a pronounced bearish structure, particularly between 00:45 ET and 06:15 ET, where ONEUSDT dropped from 0.01006 to 0.00919. The price action during this period resembles a bearish exhaustion pattern, as the asset failed to rebound from 0.00963 despite moderate volume. A bearish engulfing pattern is visible from 03:45 ET to 04:00 ET, which confirmed the continuation of the downtrend. A small doji appeared at 07:45 ET, suggesting indecision, but it did not lead to a reversal.

Moving Averages

Using the 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, price has been trading below both lines for most of the 24-hour period, indicating bearish dominance. The 50-period line crossed below the 20-period line, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA appears to be catching price on the downside around 0.0094, while the 200-period MA remains a key level of resistance at approximately 0.0104.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the zero line early in the downtrend and remained negative throughout, signaling weak bullish momentum. The RSI dropped to an oversold level of around 25 near 0.00919 but failed to generate a meaningful bounce, indicating a lack of buying interest at these levels. This suggests the downtrend could persist for some time.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was high during the steep decline from 0.0104 to 0.00919, causing the Bollinger Bands to widen significantly. However, in the final 4 hours of the 24-hour window, volatility decreased, and the bands began to contract near 0.00924–0.00931. Price remains well below the middle band and is near the lower band, reinforcing the bearish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volumes were particularly high between 00:45 ET and 06:15 ET, with the largest single candle volume reaching 57,285,448.5 ONE at 06:15 ET. This coincided with the most significant price drop, suggesting distribution pressure. Notional turnover increased in line with price declines but dropped off sharply after 06:15 ET as volatility waned. No divergence between volume and price was observed, indicating the move was well supported by selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the move from 0.01044 (high) to 0.00869 (low), the 38.2% level is at approximately 0.00971, while the 61.8% level is near 0.00913. Price briefly hit the 38.2% retracement before resuming the decline. The 61.8% level has been tested and appears to be a significant support area, as seen from 06:15 ET onward.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on detecting bearish exhaustion patterns or RSI oversold conditions as signals to short the asset. Given the observed bearish engulfing and the failure of the RSI to rebound from oversold levels, a short bias might be justified. A stop-loss could be placed just above the 61.8% Fibonacci level (0.00913), with a target near the 50-period MA on the daily chart (~0.0094) as a potential entry reversal point. The strategy would benefit from incorporating volume dynamics to confirm the strength of the bearish trend, particularly if volume spikes during significant price moves.