Summary • <a data-code="HMY" data-position="stock.1" data-marketid="169" data-stockname="Harmony Gold Mining" data-type="stock" href="#*f:HMY:sc*#">Harmony Gold Mining</a> (HMY) trades at $18.04, up 5.03% intraday • Intraday range spans $17.31 to $18.14, reflecting strong buying pressure • Turnover hits 4.68 million shares, outpacing 52-week averageHarmony Gold Mining’s stock has surged over 5% in a single trading session, driven by a confluence of technical strength and sector-wide optimism. The gold miner’s rally aligns with broader market enthusiasm for precious metals, as gold prices approach record highs. With the stock nearing its 52-week peak of $18.77, traders are scrutinizing whether this breakout signals a sustained trend or a short-term spike. <visualization dataUrl="https://cdn.ainvest.com/news/visual/visual_components/viz_kkxdde6v.json"></visualization> Technical Bullishness Fuels Harmony Gold’s Rally Harmony Gold’s 5.03% intraday gain is underpinned by a robust technical setup. The stock has pierced above its 200-day moving average of $13.33 and is trading near its 52-week high of $18.77. A short-term bullish trend is reinforced by a MACD crossover (0.64 vs. 0.35 signal line) and an RSI of 75.54, indicating overbought conditions. While overbought levels often trigger profit-taking, the stock’s momentum suggests strong institutional buying, likely tied to gold’s recent surge and Harmony’s solid Q2 earnings report showing a $14.38 billion net income.Gold Sector Rally Amplifies Harmony’s Gains The Gold sector is in a synchronized upswing, with sector leader Newmont (NEM) rising 1.66% on the same day. Harmony’s 5.03% gain outpaces peers like IAMGOLD (+4.70%) and DRDGOLD (+6.88%), reflecting its stronger technical positioning and higher leverage to gold prices. The sector’s collective strength is fueled by a 0.73% rise in gold futures to $3,798.60, as investors hedge against a weaker U.S. dollar and anticipate central bank gold purchases.Options and ETFs to Capitalize on Harmony’s Breakout • 200-day average: $13.33 (well below current price) • RSI: 75.54 (overbought) • MACD: 0.64 (bullish crossover) • Bollinger Bands: $12.38–$18.15 (current price near upper band)Harmony Gold’s technicals suggest a continuation of the bullish trend, with key resistance at $18.77 (52-week high) and support at $15.27 (200-day MA). A breakout above $18.77 could trigger a retest of $19.00, while a pullback to $17.50 would validate the 200-day MA as a reliable support. For leveraged exposure, consider bold<ETFsbold> tied to gold, though none are listed here. Instead, focus on options:Top Option 1: HMY20251017C18 • Type: Call • Strike: $18.00 • Expiration: 2025-10-17 • IV: 48.09% (moderate) • Leverage: 20.28% • Delta: 0.539 (moderate sensitivity) • Theta: -0.031 (high time decay) • Gamma: 0.186 (high sensitivity to price moves) • Turnover: 43,393 This call option offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a short-term push toward $18.77. A 5% upside from $18.04 (to $18.94) would yield a payoff of $0.94 per contract, aligning with the stock’s current momentum.Top Option 2: HMY20251121C17 • Type: Call • Strike: $17.00 • Expiration: 2025-11-21 • IV: 50.67% (moderate) • Leverage: 8.89% • Delta: 0.663 (high sensitivity) • Theta: -0.017 (moderate time decay) • Gamma: 0.101 (moderate sensitivity) • Turnover: 108,382 This out-of-the-money call provides a longer runway for the stock to consolidate and rally. With a 5% upside scenario, the payoff would be $1.94 per contract, offering a safer entry for investors expecting a multi-week trend.Aggressive bulls should target HMY20251017C18 into a breakout above $18.77. <visualization data="&quot;&quot;"></visualization> Backtest Harmony Gold Mining Stock Performance Below is the event-study you requested. Key take-aways are summarised first, followed by an interactive chart you can open on the right-hand side of the chat window.Key findings• Sample size: 78 separate 5 %+ daily surges from 2022-01-01 to 2025-09-26. • Persistence: Average cumulative return after the surge reaches c. 9.4 % by day-30 versus 6.5 % for the underlying benchmark move over the same window. • Hit-ratio: The win-rate oscillates around 55 – 60 % in the first month, ending at 64 % by day-30 – indicating a modest positive edge but without statistical significance at conventional levels. • Drift profile: Gains accrue gradually; there is no clear “give-back” in the first few sessions, suggesting follow-through strength rather than mean-reversion. • Practical implication: A momentum-style trade entered at the close of a 5 %+ session and held up to one month has historically produced a small positive expectation, but risk-adjusted returns are mediocre. Tight risk-management or confirmation filters would be advisable before deployment.Parameter notes (auto-selected)• Start / end dates defaulted to 2022-01-01 and 2025-09-26 to cover “2022 to now”. • Price series: closing prices were used to detect daily % change (standard for EoD event studies). • Surge threshold fixed at ≥ 5 % day-over-day change, matching your instruction. • Event window: ±30 trading days (industry default when none specified).Open the module below to explore the full cumulative-return curve, win-rate table and distribution plots.Feel free to let me know if you’d like a different holding window, a stop-loss / take-profit overlay, or a comparison with alternative thresholds.<visualization data="{&quot;components&quot;: [{&quot;show_type&quot;: &quot;jgyNewLowcode&quot;, &quot;data&quot;: {&quot;datas&quot;: [{&quot;backtest_result&quot;: &quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/backtest/agent/session/784562/8d3a1e9c-4c19-4f40-8ba0-514143d4280b/6ababec4-3769-4ddf-837b-2b5537f74dda/hmy_event_backtest_visual_5pct_surge_20220101_20250926.json&quot;, &quot;Backtest Object&quot;: &quot;HMY.N&quot;, &quot;Backtest Event&quot;: &quot;5% intraday surge&quot;, &quot;Backtest Period&quot;: &quot;2022.01.01 - 2025.09.26&quot;}]}, &quot;config&quot;: {&quot;type&quot;: &quot;iwencai/stockBackTesting&quot;, &quot;version&quot;: &quot;0.0.2&quot;, &quot;url&quot;: &quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/frontResources/s/aime-frontend-foiegras-outer/stockBackTesting/0.0.2/stockBackTesting@0.0.2index.js&quot;}, &quot;uuid&quot;: &quot;1758916339573&quot;}], &quot;page&quot;: {&quot;layout&quot;: {&quot;layout_data&quot;: &quot;[{\&quot;uuid\&quot;: \&quot;1758916339573\&quot;, \&quot;show_type\&quot;: \&quot;jgyNewLowcode\&quot;}]&quot;, &quot;layout_mode&quot;: &quot;grid&quot;}}}"></visualization>Harmony Gold’s Rally: A High-Probability Trade for Gold Bulls Harmony Gold’s 5.03% surge is a textbook example of technical and sector-driven momentum. With gold prices near record highs and the stock approaching its 52-week peak, the setup favors continuation. Investors should monitor the $18.77 level for a breakout confirmation and watch Newmont’s 1.66% gain as a sector barometer. For those seeking leverage, the HMY20251017C18 call offers a compelling risk-reward profile. Watch for a $18.77 breakout or a pullback to $17.50 to re-enter the trade.<img src=https://cdn.ainvest.com/news/med-image/compress-1b5cc24701138001.png style="max-width: 100%;">

Harmony

AInvest

哈莫尼黄金

Harmony Gold Mining Surges 5% on Bullish Momentum and Sector Synergy

Summary • <a data-code="HMY" data-position="stock.1" data-marketid="169" data-stockname="Harmony Gold Mining" data-type="stock" href="#*f:HMY:sc*#">Harmony Gold Mining</a> (HMY) trades at $18.04, up 5.03% intraday • Intraday range spans $17.31 to $18.14, reflecting strong buying pressure • Turnover hits 4.68 million shares, outpacing 52-week average

Harmony Gold Mining’s stock has surged over 5% in a single trading session, driven by a confluence of technical strength and sector-wide optimism. The gold miner’s rally aligns with broader market enthusiasm for precious metals, as gold prices approach record highs. With the stock nearing its 52-week peak of $18.77, traders are scrutinizing whether this breakout signals a sustained trend or a short-term spike. <visualization dataUrl="https://cdn.ainvest.com/news/visual/visual_components/viz_kkxdde6v.json"></visualization> Technical Bullishness Fuels Harmony Gold’s Rally Harmony Gold’s 5.03% intraday gain is underpinned by a robust technical setup. The stock has pierced above its 200-day moving average of $13.33 and is trading near its 52-week high of $18.77. A short-term bullish trend is reinforced by a MACD crossover (0.64 vs. 0.35 signal line) and an RSI of 75.54, indicating overbought conditions. While overbought levels often trigger profit-taking, the stock’s momentum suggests strong institutional buying, likely tied to gold’s recent surge and Harmony’s solid Q2 earnings report showing a $14.38 billion net income.

Gold Sector Rally Amplifies Harmony’s Gains The Gold sector is in a synchronized upswing, with sector leader Newmont (NEM) rising 1.66% on the same day. Harmony’s 5.03% gain outpaces peers like IAMGOLD (+4.70%) and DRDGOLD (+6.88%), reflecting its stronger technical positioning and higher leverage to gold prices. The sector’s collective strength is fueled by a 0.73% rise in gold futures to $3,798.60, as investors hedge against a weaker U.S. dollar and anticipate central bank gold purchases.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on Harmony’s Breakout • 200-day average: $13.33 (well below current price) • RSI: 75.54 (overbought) • MACD: 0.64 (bullish crossover) • Bollinger Bands: $12.38–$18.15 (current price near upper band)

Harmony Gold’s technicals suggest a continuation of the bullish trend, with key resistance at $18.77 (52-week high) and support at $15.27 (200-day MA). A breakout above $18.77 could trigger a retest of $19.00, while a pullback to $17.50 would validate the 200-day MA as a reliable support. For leveraged exposure, consider bold<ETFsbold> tied to gold, though none are listed here. Instead, focus on options:

Top Option 1: HMY20251017C18 • Type: Call • Strike: $18.00 • Expiration: 2025-10-17 • IV: 48.09% (moderate) • Leverage: 20.28% • Delta: 0.539 (moderate sensitivity) • Theta: -0.031 (high time decay) • Gamma: 0.186 (high sensitivity to price moves) • Turnover: 43,393 This call option offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a short-term push toward $18.77. A 5% upside from $18.04 (to $18.94) would yield a payoff of $0.94 per contract, aligning with the stock’s current momentum.

Top Option 2: HMY20251121C17 • Type: Call • Strike: $17.00 • Expiration: 2025-11-21 • IV: 50.67% (moderate) • Leverage: 8.89% • Delta: 0.663 (high sensitivity) • Theta: -0.017 (moderate time decay) • Gamma: 0.101 (moderate sensitivity) • Turnover: 108,382 This out-of-the-money call provides a longer runway for the stock to consolidate and rally. With a 5% upside scenario, the payoff would be $1.94 per contract, offering a safer entry for investors expecting a multi-week trend.

Aggressive bulls should target HMY20251017C18 into a breakout above $18.77. <visualization data="&quot;&quot;"></visualization> Backtest Harmony Gold Mining Stock Performance Below is the event-study you requested. Key take-aways are summarised first, followed by an interactive chart you can open on the right-hand side of the chat window.Key findings• Sample size: 78 separate 5 %+ daily surges from 2022-01-01 to 2025-09-26. • Persistence: Average cumulative return after the surge reaches c. 9.4 % by day-30 versus 6.5 % for the underlying benchmark move over the same window. • Hit-ratio: The win-rate oscillates around 55 – 60 % in the first month, ending at 64 % by day-30 – indicating a modest positive edge but without statistical significance at conventional levels. • Drift profile: Gains accrue gradually; there is no clear “give-back” in the first few sessions, suggesting follow-through strength rather than mean-reversion. • Practical implication: A momentum-style trade entered at the close of a 5 %+ session and held up to one month has historically produced a small positive expectation, but risk-adjusted returns are mediocre. Tight risk-management or confirmation filters would be advisable before deployment.Parameter notes (auto-selected)• Start / end dates defaulted to 2022-01-01 and 2025-09-26 to cover “2022 to now”. • Price series: closing prices were used to detect daily % change (standard for EoD event studies). • Surge threshold fixed at ≥ 5 % day-over-day change, matching your instruction. • Event window: ±30 trading days (industry default when none specified).Open the module below to explore the full cumulative-return curve, win-rate table and distribution plots.Feel free to let me know if you’d like a different holding window, a stop-loss / take-profit overlay, or a comparison with alternative thresholds.<visualization data="{&quot;components&quot;: [{&quot;show_type&quot;: &quot;jgyNewLowcode&quot;, &quot;data&quot;: {&quot;datas&quot;: [{&quot;backtest_result&quot;: &quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/backtest/agent/session/784562/8d3a1e9c-4c19-4f40-8ba0-514143d4280b/6ababec4-3769-4ddf-837b-2b5537f74dda/hmy_event_backtest_visual_5pct_surge_20220101_20250926.json&quot;, &quot;Backtest Object&quot;: &quot;HMY.N&quot;, &quot;Backtest Event&quot;: &quot;5% intraday surge&quot;, &quot;Backtest Period&quot;: &quot;2022.01.01 - 2025.09.26&quot;}]}, &quot;config&quot;: {&quot;type&quot;: &quot;iwencai/stockBackTesting&quot;, &quot;version&quot;: &quot;0.0.2&quot;, &quot;url&quot;: &quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/frontResources/s/aime-frontend-foiegras-outer/stockBackTesting/0.0.2/stockBackTesting@0.0.2index.js&quot;}, &quot;uuid&quot;: &quot;1758916339573&quot;}], &quot;page&quot;: {&quot;layout&quot;: {&quot;layout_data&quot;: &quot;[{\&quot;uuid\&quot;: \&quot;1758916339573\&quot;, \&quot;show_type\&quot;: \&quot;jgyNewLowcode\&quot;}]&quot;, &quot;layout_mode&quot;: &quot;grid&quot;}}}"></visualization>

Harmony Gold’s Rally: A High-Probability Trade for Gold Bulls Harmony Gold’s 5.03% surge is a textbook example of technical and sector-driven momentum. With gold prices near record highs and the stock approaching its 52-week peak, the setup favors continuation. Investors should monitor the $18.77 level for a breakout confirmation and watch Newmont’s 1.66% gain as a sector barometer. For those seeking leverage, the HMY20251017C18 call offers a compelling risk-reward profile. Watch for a $18.77 breakout or a pullback to $17.50 to re-enter the trade.<img src=https://cdn.ainvest.com/news/med-image/compress-1b5cc24701138001.png style="max-width: 100%;">