Guess (GES) Surges 25.75% on $1.4 Billion Take-Private Deal with Authentic Brands Group – What’s Next for the Fashion Icon?

Summary
• Guess (GES) surges 25.75% intraday to $16.775, a 25.75% jump from its previous close of $13.34.
• The stock trades within a tight range of $16.76–$16.85, with 8.75 million shares exchanged.
• A $1.4 billion take-private deal with Authentic Brands Group triggers immediate market reaction.

Guess’s stock has erupted in a historic intraday rally, driven by a landmark $1.4 billion take-private agreement with Authentic Brands Group. The deal, which values the brand at a 73% premium to its March 14 price, has sent shares soaring to $16.775—a 25.75% surge. With the stock trading near its intraday high, investors are scrambling to assess the implications of this strategic partnership and the potential for near-term volatility.

Take-Private Deal Ignites Immediate Liquidity Rush
The 25.75% intraday surge in Guess’s stock is directly attributable to the announced $1.4 billion take-private deal with Authentic Brands Group. Under the terms, shareholders (excluding the Rolling Stockholders) will receive $16.75 per share in cash, a 73% premium to the stock’s unaffected price in March. This premium, combined with the certainty of liquidity, has triggered a sharp price reaction. The deal’s structure—financed through rollover equity and cash commitments—eliminates uncertainty around financing, further fueling investor confidence. Additionally, the strategic partnership with Authentic, a global licensing powerhouse, signals long-term value creation, reinforcing the stock’s upward trajectory.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Short-Term Volatility and Gamma-Driven Moves
• Technical Indicators:
- 200-day MA: $12.86 (well below current price)
- RSI: 54.75 (neutral, no overbought/oversold signals)
- MACD: 0.17 (bullish divergence with signal line at 0.21)
- Bollinger Bands: $12.67–$13.99 (current price far above range)

Trading Setup: The stock’s price action suggests a short-term overextension above key technical levels, creating a high-probability setup for a pullback. However, the deal’s structural certainty (cash consideration, no financing risk) supports a bullish bias. Key resistance lies at $16.85 (intraday high), with support at $16.76 (intraday low).

Top Options Picks:
• GES20250919P16 (Put Option):
- Strike Price: $16
- Expiration: 2025-09-19
- IV: 14.09% (moderate)
- LVR: 335.40% (high leverage)
- Delta: -0.1397 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0056 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.3220 (high sensitivity to price movement)
- Turnover: 2,110 (high liquidity)
- Why It Stands Out: This put option offers high leverage and gamma, ideal for capitalizing on a potential pullback. A 5% upside scenario (to $17.61) would yield a payoff of $1.61 per share, amplified by the 335.40% leverage ratio.

• GES20250919P17 (Put Option):
- Strike Price: $17
- Expiration: 2025-09-19
- IV: 17.19% (moderate)
- LVR: 33.54% (moderate leverage)
- Delta: -0.6207 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0187 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.4480 (very high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 5,110 (extremely liquid)
- Why It Stands Out: This put option’s high gamma and liquidity make it a top choice for directional bets. A 5% upside scenario would yield a $0.61 payoff, with the high gamma ensuring rapid response to price swings.

Action Plan: Aggressive bulls should prioritize GES20250919P16 for leveraged exposure to a potential pullback. For those seeking directional clarity, GES20250919P17 offers high gamma-driven returns if the stock consolidates near $16.85. Both contracts benefit from the deal’s structural certainty and the stock’s overextended position.

Backtest Guess Stock Performance
The backtest of GES's performance after a 26% intraday surge shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a maximum return of 3.22% on day 58, the 3-day win rate is 49.36%, the 10-day win rate is 50.46%, and the 30-day win rate is 54.84%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. However, the average returns over these periods are relatively modest, with a 3-day return of 0.13%, a 10-day return of 0.38%, and a 30-day return of 1.73%.

Seize the Moment: Guess’s Take-Private Catalyst Demands Immediate Positioning
Guess’s 25.75% intraday surge is a textbook reaction to a high-conviction take-private deal, with the stock now trading at a premium to its $16.75 cash consideration. While the 52-week high of $21.81 remains distant, the immediate technical setup favors a consolidation phase, with key resistance at $16.85 and support at $16.76. Investors should monitor the options chain for liquidity shifts, particularly in the GES20250919P16 and GES20250919P17 contracts, which offer high leverage and gamma. Meanwhile, the Apparel sector’s top performer, Nike (NKE), has only gained 0.18% intraday, underscoring Guess’s unique catalyst. Act now: Position in GES20250919P16 for a pullback or GES20250919P17 for directional clarity—this is a high-conviction trade with clear near-term triggers.