Guardian Metal’s Strategic Tungsten Play in a National Security-Driven Market

In an era where critical minerals have become the new frontier of geopolitical competition, Guardian Metal Resources PLC (LSE: GMET) stands at the crossroads of U.S. national security imperatives and a surging demand for tungsten. As China’s export restrictions tighten and global supply chains fracture, the company’s Nevada-based tungsten projects—Pilot Mountain, Pilot North, and Tempiute—are positioned to address a strategic void in the U.S. defense and industrial sectors.

Geopolitical Vulnerabilities and Tungsten’s Strategic Role

China’s dominance in the tungsten market—accounting for ~82% of global primary supply—has long been a source of concern for Western nations. In 2025, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) escalated its control by imposing stricter export quotas, citing the need to preserve strategic reserves [1]. This move triggered a 10% spike in ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices, the benchmark tungsten product, which now trades at $415 per metric ton unit (MTU), with forecasts predicting a rise to $460/MTU by 2026 [1]. For the U.S., which relies heavily on imported tungsten for defense applications—ranging from armor-piercing ammunition to aerospace components—this volatility underscores an urgent need to diversify supply chains.

Guardian Metal’s Institutional Alignment and U.S. Government Support

Guardian Metal has emerged as a key player in this transition. The company’s Pilot Mountain project in Nevada, awarded $6.2 million by the U.S. Department of Defense under Title III of the Defense Production Act, is now the focal point of efforts to establish a domestic tungsten supply chain [1]. This non-dilutive funding, coupled with membership in the Defense Industrial Base Consortium (DIBC) and the Cornerstone Program, aligns the company with initiatives aimed at fortifying the U.S. defense industrial base [2]. CEO Oliver Friesen has emphasized that these partnerships “solidify Guardian Metal’s role in national security,” a sentiment echoed by the U.S. Army’s recognition of the company’s contributions to critical mineral resilience [3].

The company’s expansion into the Pilot North and Tempiute projects further strengthens its position. Pilot North, located 15km northwest of Pilot Mountain, shares similar geological characteristics with high-grade tungsten-copper deposits, while Tempiute’s confirmed mineralization of tungsten and gallium positions it as a dual-critical-metal asset [4]. These projects, supported by existing infrastructure and patented claims, are poised for rapid redevelopment—a critical factor in a market where time-to-production is a strategic advantage.

Market Dynamics and Investment Considerations

The tungsten market is undergoing a structural revaluation driven by defense procurement and industrial demand. By 2032, the global tungsten market is projected to reach $9.65 billion, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.14% [5]. Guardian Metal’s alignment with this trajectory is evident in its recent financial performance: despite a Q1 2025 loss of ($0.80) per share, the company’s share price surged 20% following its entry into the DIBC and Cornerstone Program, valuing it at nearly £150 million [6]. Analysts have assigned a “Strong Buy” rating, with a price target of $3.00, reflecting optimism about its potential to capitalize on U.S. policy tailwinds [7].

However, risks persist. The company’s reliance on a single jurisdiction (Nevada) exposes it to regulatory and environmental scrutiny, while competition from European and South Korean projects—such as Spain’s Sangdong mine—could fragment the non-Chinese supply landscape [1]. Additionally, the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff on Chinese tungsten imports in 2025 may accelerate domestic production but also heighten short-term volatility [8].

Conclusion: A National Security-Driven Investment

Guardian Metal’s strategic alignment with U.S. defense priorities, combined with its technical and financial milestones, positions it as a compelling long-term investment. While its current financials reflect the challenges of early-stage exploration, the company’s institutional partnerships, government funding, and proximity to critical demand sectors (defense, aerospace, EVs) mitigate many of these risks. As geopolitical tensions continue to reshape global supply chains, Guardian Metal’s role in securing a domestic tungsten supply is not just economically significant—it is a matter of national security.

Source:
[1] Tungsten Market Outlook 2025–2030: Navigating a Shifting Global Landscape [https://www.coreconsultantsgroup.com/tungsten-market-outlook-2025-2030-navigating-a-shifting-global-landscape/]
[2] Guardian Metal Joins Defense Industrial Base Consortium [https://www.stocktitan.net/news/GMTLF/guardian-metal-resources-plc-announces-defense-industrial-base-0cw7erqcszkt.html]
[3] Guardian Metal Resources PLC Share Price Prediction [https://startuprise.co.uk/guardian-metal-resources-plc-share-price/]
[4] Guardian Metal Resources acquires Pilot North Tungsten Project [https://www.mining-technology.com/news/guardian-metal-resources-pilot-north-tungsten-project-nevada/]
[5] Tungsten Market Growth Rate, Industry Insights and Report [https://www.datamintelligence.com/research-report/tungsten-market]
[6] Guardian Metal Resources boosted as it enters US govt programs [https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1077309/guardian-metal-resources-boosted-as-it-enters-us-govt-programs-1077309.html]
[7] Guardian Metal Resources PLC (GMTLF) - Yahoo Finance [https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GMTLF/]
[8] Reviving U.S. Tungsten Production [https://www.alphaequityreport.com/tungstencorp]