GTI Plummets 20.7%: A Volatile Intraday Drama Unfolds as Tech Sector Navigates AI Turbulence

Summary
• Graphjet (GTI) trades at $3.80, down 20.7% from its $4.79 close
• Intraday range spans $3.475 to $3.86 amid 28.2% turnover rate
• Sector peers like Microsoft (-0.17%) hint at broader tech sector jitters
• RSI at 99.01 and Bollinger Bands at extremes signal extreme volatility

Graphjet’s 20.7% intraday plunge has ignited a firestorm in the Software sector, where AI-driven uncertainty and regulatory scrutiny dominate headlines. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $3.41, investors are scrambling to decode whether this selloff is a short-term correction or a deeper structural shift. The broader tech sector, led by Microsoft’s marginal decline, underscores a fragile market sentiment as AI’s disruptive potential clashes with investor caution.

Overbought RSI and Sector-Wide AI Anxiety Fuel GTI’s Freefall
GTI’s 20.7% drop is a direct consequence of its RSI spiking to 99.01—a clear overbought signal—triggering profit-taking and algorithmic selling. The stock’s 52-week high of $249.01 contrasts starkly with its current price, amplifying panic. Meanwhile, sector-wide anxiety over AI’s impact on software margins, as highlighted in Cramer’s 'Stop Trading' warning on Figma and Netskope’s IPO filing, has spilled into GTI’s shares. The Bollinger Bands’ extreme width (Upper: $2.44, Lower: -$1.75) and MACD divergence (0.37 vs. 0.07 signal line) confirm a volatile reversal in momentum.

Technical Divergence and Liquidity Gaps Define High-Risk Setup
• RSI: 99.01 (overbought, extreme sell signal)
• MACD: 0.370975 (bullish), Signal Line: 0.073465 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $2.44, Middle $0.34, Lower -$1.75 (extreme volatility)
• 200-day MA: $0.555584 (far above current price)
• Support/Resistance: 30D (0.073–0.167), 200D (0.064–0.159) (broken)

GTI’s technicals paint a harrowing picture: an overbought RSI at 99.01 and divergent MACD signal a breakdown. Key support levels at $3.475 (intraday low) and $3.41 (52-week low) are critical for short-term stability. The 200-day MA at $0.555584 remains a distant target, but liquidity gaps and the absence of leveraged ETFs complicate positioning. With no options chain data available, traders must rely on strict stop-losses and avoid overexposure to this hyper-volatile name.

Backtest Graphjet Stock Performance
The backtest of GTI's performance after a -21% intraday plunge shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is 42.34%, indicating a moderate probability of a positive return in the short term, the overall 30-day win rate is 67.00%, suggesting that longer-term returns are more consistently positive. The maximum return during the backtest period was 6.35%, which occurred on day 59, indicating that while there is some volatility, significant positive returns are possible even after a substantial intraday decline.

GTI’s $3.41 Floor Test: A Make-or-Break Moment for AI-Driven Software Stocks
GTI’s survival hinges on its ability to hold above $3.475 and the 52-week low of $3.41. A breakdown would validate the RSI’s overbought warning and signal deeper sector weakness, especially as Microsoft (-0.17%) and peers grapple with AI-driven margin pressures. Investors should prioritize liquidity and avoid speculative longs until the stock retests key moving averages. For now, the message is clear: volatility is the new normal, and GTI’s next move could redefine the Software sector’s trajectory.