Los riesgos cada vez mayores en la deuda insegurizada y las oportunidades en las empresas financieras

The U.S. unsecured debt market is navigating a precarious landscape in 2025, marked by elevated default risks and persistent delinquency trends. According to a report by Moody's, the average risk of default for U.S. public companies reached a post-global financial crisis high of 9.2% by the end of 2024, with speculative-grade default rates remaining at 3.5% globally. This trend is expected to linger into 2025, as macroeconomic pressures and rising borrowing costs continue to strain corporate and household balance sheets. For instance, U.S. household debt has surged to $18.04 trillion by Q4 2024, with auto loan and credit card delinquency rates reflecting heightened financial stress.

The Unsecured Debt Dilemma

Data from TransUnion indicates that U.S. credit card delinquency rates (90+ days past due) are projected to reach 2.76% by the end of 2025, a 12-basis-point increase from the previous year. While this represents a moderate rise compared to the sharp spikes of 2022–2023, it underscores a stabilization at historically elevated levels. Similarly, personal loan delinquency rates (60+ days past due) stood at 3.52% in Q3 2025, up slightly from 3.50% in the same period the prior year. These figures highlight a bifurcated credit environment: while corporate and consumer delinquency trends have plateaued, they remain far above pre-pandemic norms, posing risks to lenders and investors.

S&P Global Ratings anticipates a gradual decline in U.S. speculative-grade corporate default rates to 4.0% by September 2026, down from 4.6% in September 2025. However, this optimism is tempered by regional divergences and global trade tensions, which Moody's warns could slow the decline in corporate defaults. The agency also notes a temporary uptick in the global speculative-grade default rate to 3.2% by year-end 2025 before a projected decline. These mixed signals suggest that while structural improvements in corporate balance sheets and AI-driven capital expenditures may support a recovery, the path remains uneven.

Fortress Financials: A Strategic Counterbalance

Amid these risks, private credit firms like Fortress Investment Group are emerging as compelling opportunities for strategic asset allocation. Fortress's direct lending strategies committed $2.4 billion in approximately 30 transactions during the first half of 2025, reflecting its growing influence in the credit market. The firm's focus on credit private equity funds accounting for 75% of its $53.1 billion in assets under management positions it to capitalize on a $12.4 trillion corporate debt maturity wall spanning 2025–2029.

A critical opportunity lies in the commercial real estate (CRE) sector, where a $4 trillion debt-maturity wall between 2025 and 2029 is creating a refinancing gap as traditional banks retreat due to regulatory pressures. Fortress has leveraged its expertise in CRE lending to close $800 million in Q3 2025 deals, emphasizing conservative structures and high-quality collateral. This aligns with broader market dynamics: S&P Global estimates that $3.2 trillion in CRE debt will mature between 2025 and 2029, representing over half of the $6.1 trillion in outstanding CRE debt. For investors, this presents a chance to access secured, high-yield opportunities insulated from the volatility of unsecured debt markets.

Strategic Allocation in a Bifurcated Landscape

The contrast between unsecured debt risks and secured credit opportunities necessitates a nuanced asset allocation strategy. While unsecured markets remain vulnerable to refinancing challenges-particularly for smaller, non-investment-grade firms-Fortress's focus on CRE and direct lending offers a hedge against these risks. For example, Fitch's analysis notes that Fortress's leverage (debt-to-FEBITDA of 5.5x as of Q2 2025) has improved from 6.6x in Q2 2024, reflecting stronger balance sheet management. This resilience is critical in a market where liquidity constraints could exacerbate defaults in unsecured segments.