Greenbrier Gears Up For Q2 Print; Wall Street's Top Analysts Weigh In

Ladies and gentlemen, buckle up! Greenbrier Companies (GBX) is about to drop its Q2 earnings report, and the buzz on Wall Street is electric. Let's dive into the recent forecast changes from the most accurate analysts and see what's driving the consensus EPS forecast of $1.78 for Q2 2025.



First things first, let's talk about the recent forecast changes from Wall Street's top analysts. The sentiment is mixed, but there are some clear trends emerging. Justin Long from Stephens & Co. maintained an Overweight rating and increased the price target from $62 to $65 on April 8, 2024. This analyst has an accuracy rate of 70%, which adds credibility to the positive sentiment. On the other hand, Ken Hoexter from B of A Securities maintained an Underperform rating and raised the price target from $60 to $62 on Jan 9, 2025. This analyst has an accuracy rate of 64%, suggesting a more cautious approach.

Now, let's break down the specific factors driving the consensus EPS forecast of $1.78 for Greenbrier's Q2 2025:

1. Revenue Growth: Greenbrier reported record-breaking revenue of $876 million in Q1 2025, marking a new first-quarter record. This strong revenue performance is expected to continue into Q2 2025, contributing to the higher EPS forecast. In the same quarter last year, Greenbrier reported revenue of $862.7 million, indicating a year-over-year increase in revenue.

2. Margin Performance: Greenbrier's Q1 2025 EBITDA was $145 million with an aggregate gross margin of 19.8%, showing a 480 basis points year-over-year improvement. This significant margin improvement is attributed to enhanced manufacturing efficiencies and a favorable product mix, which are expected to continue into Q2 2025, driving higher earnings.

3. Strategic Initiatives: Greenbrier's management has emphasized strategic initiatives and efficiency improvements, which are expected to drive long-term shareholder value. These initiatives include enhancing manufacturing productivity and operational efficiency, which are likely to contribute to the higher EPS forecast for Q2 2025.

4. Backlog and Order Activity: Greenbrier secured global orders of 3,800 units worth $520 million in Q1 2025, with a backlog of 23,400 units valued at $3 billion. This strong backlog and order activity provide visibility into future revenue and earnings, supporting the consensus EPS forecast for Q2 2025.

5. Leasing Performance: Greenbrier's lease fleet grew by 1,200 units with stable fleet utilization of 99%. Lease renewal rates continued to grow at double digits, contributing to the company's overall financial performance and supporting the higher EPS forecast for Q2 2025.

In comparison to the same quarter last year, Greenbrier's EPS for Q2 2024 was $1.03. The consensus EPS forecast of $1.78 for Q2 2025 represents a significant year-over-year increase, driven by the factors mentioned above. This increase is supported by the company's strong revenue growth, improved margin performance, and strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing operational efficiency.

So, what does all this mean for you, the investor? Well, the consensus among analysts is a "Hold" rating, with one analyst recommending a Strong Buy, one recommending a Buy, and one recommending a Sell. This mixed sentiment is likely to influence investor decisions, with some investors taking a wait-and-see approach while others may be more inclined to buy or sell based on their individual risk tolerance and investment goals.

But here's the bottom line: Greenbrier is poised for a strong Q2 print, and the recent forecast changes from Wall Street's most accurate analysts reflect this optimism. So, stay tuned for the earnings report on April 7, 2025, and get ready to make your move!