The Greenback's Retreat: How a Weakening Dollar is Supercharging Earnings for US Multinationals in 2026

The U.S. dollar's prolonged retreat in 2025 has emerged as a pivotal catalyst for earnings growth among multinational corporations, particularly those listed in the S&P 500. A 9% decline in the dollar's value-the worst since the -has historically correlated with robust earnings expansion for large U.S. firms, as foreign revenues convert into stronger domestic returns. With global economic resilience and divergent central bank policies continuing to pressure the greenback, this tailwind is expected to persist into 2026, creating a fertile environment for revenue re-rating and outperformance in key sectors.

The Dollar's Decline: A Tailwind for Multinational Earnings

A weaker dollar inherently benefits companies with significant international operations. When the U.S. currency depreciates, overseas earnings from these firms translate into higher dollar values, directly boosting reported revenues and profits. According to a report by WisdomTree, . This dynamic is particularly relevant in 2026, as global economic conditions remain uneven but resilient, with emerging markets and Europe showing stronger growth trajectories than the U.S.

J.P. Morgan Global Research underscores this trend, forecasting that the dollar's weakness will drive above-trend earnings growth of 13–15% for the S&P 500 over the next two years. The firm attributes this to a combination of AI-driven productivity gains and supportive financial conditions, including the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance. Meanwhile, UBS analysts project , fueled by corporate earnings growth and resilient forward estimates.

Sector Spotlight: Technology and Logistics as Key Beneficiaries

The technology and logistics sectors stand out as prime beneficiaries of both currency tailwinds and AI-driven efficiency gains. Over 80% of S&P 500 companies expected to grow revenues by 10% or more in 2026 are concentrated in technology and communication services. For instance, C.H. Robinson (CHRW), a leading logistics firm, has raised its 2026 operating income target , citing aggressive AI adoption that has enhanced productivity and operating leverage. . The company's Q3 2025 results already reflected this momentum, with operating income surging 22.6% year-over-year to $220.8 million.

Similarly, XPO Logistics is leveraging AI for freight-matching, a strategy projected to bolster margins and profitability in 2026. These firms exemplify how AI integration is transitioning from hype to measurable operational improvements, with logistics companies deploying predictive tools to reduce waste and optimize delivery networks. As AI adoption expands beyond tech leaders, sectors like manufacturing and industrial services are also poised to see tangible productivity gains.

Revenue Re-Rating and the AI Supercycle

The re-rating of multinational earnings in 2026 is further amplified by the AI supercycle. BlackRock analysts note , with half already reporting efficiency improvements. This trend is expected to drive a broader economic transformation, with AI enabling cost reductions and market share expansion. For example, hyperscalers like Amazon and Microsoft are fueling capital expenditures, creating a ripple effect across supply chains and logistics networks.

Investing.com highlights that AI's impact is not confined to tech giants. Companies in utilities, healthcare, and logistics are embedding AI into core operations, generating incremental gains that collectively support sector-wide profitability. This shift is particularly evident in logistics, where firms like CHRW and XPO are automating freight-matching and optimizing routes, directly translating into higher margins.

Risks and Counterarguments

While the dollar's weakness and AI tailwinds present compelling opportunities, risks remain. Persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions could undermine the sustained benefits of a weaker dollar. cautions that a "dire year for the dollar" may see little relief in 2026, with central banks in emerging markets tightening policies to curb capital outflows. Additionally, the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, while supportive of borrowing and spending, could face delays if inflation proves stubborn.

However, the current macroeconomic landscape suggests these risks are manageable. The Fed's dovish stance and global growth resilience provide a buffer against short-term volatility, allowing multinational corporations to capitalize on currency tailwinds and AI-driven efficiencies.

Conclusion: Positioning for 2026

The U.S. dollar's retreat in 2025 has set the stage for a re-rating of multinational earnings in 2026, with technology and logistics sectors leading the charge. As AI adoption translates into measurable productivity gains and currency tailwinds amplify revenue growth, investors are well-positioned to capitalize on this confluence of macroeconomic and technological forces. While risks persist, the combination of a weaker dollar, supportive monetary policy, and AI-driven innovation creates a compelling case for overweighting global multinationals in 2026.