La gran divergencia: escasez física de plata vs. volatilidad de papel

The global silver market in 2025 has become a study in contrasts. On one hand, physical scarcity is tightening, driven by structural deficits and surging industrial demand. On the other, paper markets-derivatives and ETFs-exhibit volatility that diverges from the fundamentals of supply and demand. This divergence, fueled by regulatory shifts and speculative positioning, creates both risks and opportunities for investors. Strategic positioning in the physical silver market, however, remains critical amid these dynamics.

The Physical Scarcity Narrative

Silver's physical supply chain is under unprecedented strain. Global mine production in 2024 rose by 0.9% to 819.7 million ounces, but this marginal gain was offset by a 3% decline in total demand to 1.16 billion ounces, driven by weaker investment and silverware demand. Meanwhile, industrial consumption-particularly in solar photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing and AI-related applications-reached record levels. By late 2025, structural deficits had accumulated, with Metals Focus projecting a 95 million-ounce shortfall for the year and a five-year cumulative deficit of 820 million ounces.

Physical inventory levels further underscore the scarcity. London's silver vaults saw a 3.5% monthly increase in holdings by November 2025, reaching 27,187 tonnes, while Shanghai's warehouse inventories hit decade lows. Elevated silver lease rates and the reclassification of silver as a "strategic critical mineral" highlight the market's transformation. By December 2025, prices surged past $80 per ounce, driven by tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and export restrictions from key producers.

The Paper Volatility Conundrum

In contrast, paper silver markets-derivatives and ETFs-have experienced sharp corrections despite the physical scarcity. Silver prices more than doubled in 2025, peaking above $64 per ounce in mid-December, but a single-day plunge of 8.7% to $47.89 in October 2025 revealed fragility. This volatility was exacerbated by speculative trading, leveraged positions, and regulatory interventions, such as margin hikes by U.S. futures exchanges.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) amplified the divergence. Inflows of 95 million ounces in the first half of 2025 pushed global silver ETF holdings to 1.13 billion ounces, but premiums to net asset value and subsequent corrections exposed the risks of overleveraged positions. Regulatory changes in derivatives markets, including speculative long positions reaching multi-month highs, further destabilized pricing. Analysts warn that while industrial demand may sustain prices, excessive speculation could trigger demand destruction in sectors like solar and electronics.

Strategic Positioning in the Physical Market

The growing disconnect between physical and paper markets demands a recalibration of investment strategies. For investors, physical silver-whether through bullion, coins, or industrial-grade holdings-offers a hedge against the volatility of derivatives and ETFs. Key considerations include:

1. Inventory Arbitrage: With London's vaults accumulating silver while Shanghai's inventories dwindle, investors can capitalize on regional price differentials. Physical accumulation in under-supplied hubs may yield outsized returns.

2. Industrial Demand Leverage: The solar PV and AI sectors are projected to consume 8,000–9,000 tonnes annually. Direct investment in silver-backed industrial applications or recycling infrastructure could align with long-term structural trends.

3. Regulatory Risk Mitigation: As speculative positions in derivatives unwind, physical silver remains less susceptible to regulatory-driven corrections. Diversifying into physical assets reduces exposure to the fragility of paper markets.

Conclusion

The "Great Divergence" in silver markets reflects a broader tension between physical fundamentals and financial engineering. While paper volatility is inevitable in a speculative environment, the physical scarcity narrative-driven by industrial demand and tightening inventories-presents a compelling case for strategic positioning. Investors who prioritize physical silver over paper instruments may find themselves better insulated from the shocks of regulatory shifts and market corrections. In an era where the "white metal" is redefined as a critical strategic resource, the path to resilience lies in aligning with the enduring laws of supply and demand.